大越期货尿素早报-20260305

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with the main contract of urea showing a volatile and strong trend. The daily production is at a high level year - on - year, industrial demand is weak but reserve demand is good, agricultural demand has room for growth in the near future, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that urea will show a volatile trend today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea include the gradual transition of agricultural demand to the peak season and the continuous strengthening of overseas prices, while the bearish factor is the historical high of daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high. Overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is weak but has a recovery expectation. Compound fertilizer operating rate is rising, while melamine operating rate is falling. Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and comprehensive inventories are accumulating. The external price continues to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and export markets is widening [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is 38, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.0%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.35 million tons (+154,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to show a volatile and strong trend on the disk. With daily production at a high level year - on - year, weak industrial demand but good reserve demand, agricultural demand has room for growth in the near future. With inventory accumulation, the UR is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1860 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1880 (-10), Henan spot price is 1860 (unchanged), and FOB China price is 3327 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 05 contract is 1822 (+3), the basis is 38 (-3). UR01 price is 1788 (+4), UR05 price is 1822 (+3), and UR09 price is 1812 (+7) [6]. | | Inventory | The number of warehouse receipts is 1275 (-4683), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.35 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.176 million tons, and UR port inventory is 0.174 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |