大越期货纯碱早报-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. Although the conflict between the US and Iran boosts sentiment, the short - term is expected to be mainly volatile [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: The operating load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II has increased, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has been declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1203 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 43 yuan. The futures are at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2] - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][32] - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2] - Expectation: The conflict between the US and Iran boosts sentiment, but the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2] Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Less cold repair of downstream float glass, stable output; the conflict between the US and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment of the market [4] - Negative Factors: The operating load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, and the output is expected to remain at a high level; the production of heavy soda ash downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4] - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4] Soda Ash Futures Market - Closing Price of Main Contract: The previous value was 1218 yuan/ton, the current value is 1203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% [5] - Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe: The previous value was 1175 yuan/ton, the current value is 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% [5] - Main Basis: The previous value and the current value are both - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00% [5] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] Soda Ash Production - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 162.25 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China co - production process is - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14] - Operating Rate: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04% [17] - Output: The weekly output of soda ash is 790,900 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 423,000 tons, and the output is at a historical high [19] - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [20] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [23] - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the operating rate is 70.61% [26] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [32] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand difference [33]