大越期货玻璃早报-20260305

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner in the short term [2]. - The glass supply is at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing plants are dismal, and the glass factory inventory has rebounded, with the expectation of mainly low - level volatile and weak operation [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1054 yuan/ton to 1038 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.52%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained at 956 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 98 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton, a change of - 16.33% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 956 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but the cold repair is less than expected, and the supply is at a low level [2]. Fundamentals - Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 209, with an operating rate of 70.61%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period [18]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [20]. Fundamentals - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 76.008 million weight boxes, an increase of 37.32% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [39]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [40]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The glass production profit is at a low level, and the output is decreasing [4]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real estate industry is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processing plants are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [4].