建信期货国债日报-20260305

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily - Date: March 5, 2026 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1][2][3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoint - Due to the weakening of the February PMI and the support of risk - aversion sentiment, the bond market continued to show a relatively strong performance. The yields of most major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined. In March, treasury bond futures may first strengthen and then weaken. The weak February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival, but high - frequency economic indicators after the festival showed a rapid resumption of production. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, which will dampen market expectations of monetary easing. Trump's visit to China at the end of March may push up market risk appetite, putting pressure on the bond market. In the short term, the deterioration of the US - Iran situation has increased risk - aversion sentiment, and there may be certain expectation differences during the Two Sessions. However, concerns about inflation caused by the continuous soaring of oil prices need to be noted [8][9][11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Market Performance: Affected by the weakening of the February PMI and risk - aversion sentiment, the bond market continued to be strong. The yields of most major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with the decline of the 10 - year treasury bond yield within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250022 was reported at 1.788%, a decline of 0.8bp. At the beginning of the month, the inter - bank liquidity was loose, with a net withdrawal of 36.9 billion yuan through open - market reverse repurchases. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.27%, the 7 - day funding rate dropped 3.3bp to around 1.42%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly between 1.56% and 1.58% [8][9][10] - Conclusion: The weak February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival. High - frequency economic indicators after the festival showed a rapid resumption of production, and overseas export demand remained strong. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season, and the economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. Trump's visit to China at the end of March may push up market risk appetite, putting pressure on the bond market. In the short term, the deterioration of the US - Iran situation has increased risk - aversion sentiment, and there may be certain expectation differences during the Two Sessions. After the long - term supply pressure is digested, market sentiment may be restored. However, concerns about inflation caused by the continuous soaring of oil prices need to be noted. Overall, treasury bond futures in March may first strengthen and then weaken [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to 12th, with an 8 - day session. The agenda includes reviewing the government work report, the draft 14th Five - Year Plan, etc. There will be 3 press conferences, 3 "Representative Corridor" and 3 "Ministerial Corridor" activities. The spokesperson of the conference, Lou Qinjian, made statements on various issues such as the 14th Five - Year Plan, the economy, and foreign policy [13] - The State Council Information Office will hold a briefing on March 5th to interpret the "Government Work Report". The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, called on all parties to stop military operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Affected by the Spring Festival, China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points. China's S&P manufacturing PMI in February was 52.1, expected 50.2, and the previous value was 50.3; the service industry PMI was 56.7, expected 52.3, and the previous value was 52.3; the composite PMI was 55.4, and the previous value was 51.6 [14] 4.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on March 4th, including information such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for multiple contracts. It also mentions aspects such as the spread between different - term and different - variety main contracts and the trend of main contracts [6] - Money Market: The data sources of the money market mainly come from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. The report includes figures related to the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [30][32] - Derivatives Market: The data sources of the derivatives market are also from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. The report shows figures of the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]