金融期货早评-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Middle - East geopolitical conflict is a core black - swan event affecting the global market. Although it doesn't change the long - term market trend under controllable circumstances, it strengthens the trading priority of long - cycle geopolitical game narratives. The implementation of the 15% global import tariff is a core confirmation of the continuation of the long - cycle geopolitical narrative. The impact on the market depends on the degree and duration of the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, and extreme risks need to be vigilant [1][2]. - For different commodities, the market is mainly influenced by factors such as the Middle - East situation, supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. For example, the prices of some commodities are supported by cost increases due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are affected by supply shortages or demand changes [2][3][5] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - Macro: Continue to focus on the Middle - East situation and the Two Sessions. The Fed has different views on interest rate cuts. The US economy is expected to grow slightly to moderately. The US - Iran conflict may last for a long time, and the 2 - month Chinese manufacturing PMI is 49%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index was suppressed by Trump's remarks and Iran - US negotiation news. Short - term export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.82 [3][4] - Stock Index: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the stock index continued to weaken, and the trading volume shrank. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust, and long positions can be appropriately reduced [4][5] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market rose, and the 2 - month manufacturing PMI was lower than expected. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in small amounts, and short - term positions should be temporarily on the sidelines [5][6] 3.2 Commodities 3.2.1 New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price increased, and the spot market price of the lithium - battery industry chain weakened. It is recommended to focus on structural long - making opportunities after the callback and downstream enterprises can replenish inventory at low prices [8] - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The industrial silicon futures price increased, and the polysilicon futures price decreased. The industrial silicon is affected by the increase in electricity prices, and the current fundamentals are still weak. It is necessary to wait for the improvement of the supply - demand pattern [8][9] 3.2.2 Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Industry Chain: The price of Shanghai aluminum was affected by the US - Iran conflict. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of alumina rebounded, and it is recommended to sell deep - out - of - the - money put options. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and attention can be paid to the price difference [10][11] - Copper: The copper price was adjusted at a high level. The expected price fluctuation range of Shanghai copper is 100020 - 105560 yuan/ton [11][13] - Zinc: The short - term fluctuation follows the sector, and it is necessary to observe the development of the Iran situation and the inventory turning point [13][14] - Nickel - Stainless Steel: It oscillated during the day, with complex market sentiment. It is short - term weak and medium - term strong [14][15] - Tin: It mainly followed the sector to rebound and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [16] - Lead: It oscillated and adjusted, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating operation [16][17] 3.2.3 Oils and Fats, and Feeds - Oilseeds: The external market of US soybeans oscillated at a high level, and the domestic market continued to oscillate. It is recommended to expand the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [18][19] - Oils: The rise of the oil market paused. After the emotional cooling caused by geopolitical conflicts, the market will gradually return to fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the February data of Malaysian palm oil and the review of the US RFS final rules [19][20] 3.2.4 Energy and Oil and Gas - SC: The internal market remained strong due to geopolitical concerns and high freight rates. The focus of the market is on the "physical blockade" degree of the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the US - Iran situation [21][22] - Fuel Oil: The near - month squeeze of high - sulfur fuel oil was obvious, and the short - term trend was dominated by the Middle - East geopolitical situation [23] - Asphalt: The premium was given back. The asphalt price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and short - term geopolitical disturbances are the core factors [24] 3.2.5 Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: They oscillated upward. The medium - to - long - term bull market foundation remains, but short - term adjustment risks need to be vigilant [26][27] - Gold & Silver: They oscillated and consolidated. It is advisable to maintain a strategic long - position view and be vigilant against short - term adjustment risks [27][29] 3.2.6 Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp futures price oscillated. It is recommended to conduct range trading in the short term and try low - long strategies in the medium term. The offset paper futures price is approaching the previous high, and high - short strategies can be tried [31][32] - LPG: The price fluctuated greatly, and the trading core was the US - Iran situation. Attention should be paid to the "physical blockade" degree of the Strait of Hormuz and the situation of PDH enterprises [32][33] - Methanol: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, it has two major positive factors, and several key indicators need to be closely monitored [34][35] - Plastic PP: The geopolitical disturbance continued, and the volatility increased. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and pay attention to high - short opportunities after the market sentiment calms down [35][37] - Rubber: It oscillated and consolidated, with multiple and short factors coexisting. The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate, and the butadiene rubber is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation [38][44] - Glass and Soda Ash: The oscillation pattern continued. For soda ash, the supply may be affected by unexpected factors, and for glass, the actual demand has not returned yet, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase [45][46] 3.2.7 Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The price rebounded slightly. Policy expectations support the market in the short term, but the weak fundamentals limit the upward space. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions and the inventory reduction speed [47][48] - Iron Ore: The price rebounded. The market shows a supply - demand game pattern, and it is recommended to "be bearish but not short" [49] - Coking Coal and Coke: The first round of price cuts started. The price may face downward pressure if there are combinations of "domestic mine复产 exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro - sentiment" [50][51] - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: The short - term sentiment oscillated strongly. The silicon - manganese price is affected by high inventory, and the silicon - iron fundamentals are better [52][53] 3.2.8 Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hogs: The price冲高回落. It is recommended to sell the call option of the main hog contract LH2605 - C - 12800 [53][54] - Cotton: It oscillated and adjusted. The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight this year, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [55][56] - Sugar: The estimated sugar production in Yunnan in the 25/26 season was raised. The international raw sugar is under pressure, and the domestic market oscillates strongly in the short term [56][58] - Eggs: The price探底回升. It is recommended to sell the call option of the main egg contract [60] - Apples: The price rose strongly. The short - term demand weakens after the festival, but the delivery contradiction supports the price [68][69] - Jujubes: The price maintained an oscillation. The supply is abundant, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [70] - Logs: The market is relatively neutral, and the futures price oscillates. It is recommended to shift from a low - long strategy to a range - trading strategy [71][72]