有色早报-20260305

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Maintain a mid - term bullish view on copper as it has increasing demand and limited supply under the current market environment [1] - Aluminum prices may surge in the short - term due to potential production cuts in the Middle East, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory reduction [1] - Zinc prices are expected to be supported in the short - term despite general domestic fundamentals, considering long - term capital investment and supply disturbances [2] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [4] - Stainless steel prices are expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range under similar conditions [8] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and scrap lead profit [11] - Tin prices are still regarded as strong, but large fluctuations may occur, and potential callback risks should be noted [14] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and bottom - oscillate seasonally in the long - term [18] - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to be strong in the short - term, and there is a large space for positive spreads between months if intermediate inventories are further reduced [20] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices oscillated in the first half of the week and increased slightly with positions in the second half. Downstream point - pricing was weak due to post - Spring Festival recovery. LME North American warehousing continued, suppressing the LME cash - 3m structure. The market is concerned about China's consumption ability. The conflict between Iran and the US may increase market attention to copper [1] Aluminum - Aluminum prices may be affected by the Middle East situation. The inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum products is in line with seasonality but at a higher absolute level. Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory reduction [1] Zinc - On the supply side, zinc ore supply is expected to be tight in the medium - term, and domestic and imported TC are at low levels. On the demand side, downstream复产 is slow, and inventory has increased during the holiday. Long - term capital investment is limited, and there are supply disturbances, which may support short - term zinc prices [2] Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production increased in January. On the demand side, it is weak. Inventory is accumulating both in China and LME. There are many supply - side disturbances, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [4] Stainless Steel - Supply decreased slightly, demand is in the off - season, costs are relatively stable, and inventory is accumulating seasonally. Affected by supply - side disturbances, it is expected to follow nickel prices and fluctuate within a range [8] Lead - On the supply side, primary lead production is resuming, and secondary lead is expected to resume production in mid - March. On the demand side, battery production is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Lead prices are expected to be weak and volatile [11] Tin - Tin prices rose significantly this week. On the supply side, production in Wa State is recovering, but there are supply - side risks. On the demand side, domestic and overseas consumption is mixed. Inventory is high, and tin prices are strong but may be volatile [14] Industrial Silicon - Southwest production enterprises are mostly shut down. Supply and demand are approaching balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, prices are expected to bottom - oscillate seasonally [18] Lithium Carbonate - The market was strong last week. On the supply side, there are potential disturbances, and on the demand side, it is strong. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and there is a large space for positive spreads between months if intermediate inventories are further reduced [20]