大越期货沥青期货早报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is high in the short - term, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the inventory shows a pattern of continuous accumulation in social and factory inventories and continuous depletion in port inventories. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil, and it is expected that the asphalt futures will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2606 contract oscillating between 3614 - 3706 [8][9][10] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8] - Demand Side: The operating rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average levels. The overall demand is currently lower than the historical average [9] - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [9] - Comprehensive Judgment: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bullish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2606 contract oscillating between 3614 - 3706 [9][10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The closing prices of different contracts showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 38 to 3378, a decline of 1.11%; the 03 contract increased by 43 to 3632, an increase of 1.20% [16] - Basis: The basis of different contracts also changed. For example, the basis of the 06 contract was - 143 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20, a decrease of 12.27% [16] - Inventory and Operating Rate: Social inventory was 1.096 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93%; factory inventory was 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.34%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 770,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. The operating rates of different types of asphalt and related products showed different changes [18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report provides the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices of asphalt [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price differences between different contracts [25] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the prices of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the profitability of asphalt refining [31] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relative price relationships among them [35] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report provides the historical trends of the prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price changes of asphalt in different regions [38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It includes the analysis of asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt, and provides relevant historical trend charts from 2019 to 2026 [41][44] - Supply - Side Analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, output, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend, local refinery asphalt output, operating rate, estimated maintenance loss volume, etc., and provides relevant historical trend charts [47][50][53] - Inventory Analysis: It includes the analysis of exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio, etc., and provides relevant historical trend charts [69][73][76] - Import and Export Situation: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt, which helps to understand the import and export situation of asphalt [79][82][84] - Demand - Side Analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, downstream machinery demand, asphalt operating rate, downstream operating conditions, etc.), and provides relevant historical trend charts [85][87][90] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including asphalt monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107]