Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts (especially the US - Iran conflict), supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and macro - economic data to provide insights and trading suggestions for each market [2][6][15]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Aluminum: Affected by the supply crisis in the Middle East, the internal - external positive spread has widened. The short - term market is cautious due to macro - situation uncertainties, but the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term operating range of the main contract is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [2][23]. - Styrene: Driven by geopolitical factors and cost, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream开工 and the dynamics of Iranian styrene plants. Strategies include being cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and narrowing the EB04 - BZ04 spread when it is high [3][105]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to silicon ferrosilicon exports. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [4][62]. - Corn: The spot price is firm, and the price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to the change in grain - selling enthusiasm with rising temperatures and the release of policy grain sources [5][74]. Macro - finance - Stock Index Futures: Geopolitical risks are complex and changeable, and the stock index is slowly building a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see and keep a low position [6][9]. - Precious Metals: The US economy has slightly improved. Officials' statements have stabilized oil prices and supported interest rate cuts. The US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded slightly. Gold may fluctuate around historical highs, and silver and platinum - palladium have their own characteristics in terms of supply - demand and price trends [10][13][14]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a short - term mismatch between supply and demand, and the market risk preference is under pressure. In the long term, the copper price is still optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [15][18]. - Alumina: The spot basis has recovered, and the futures price is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18][20]. - Aluminum: The supply crisis in the Middle East has spread, and the internal - external positive spread has widened. The short - term is cautious, and the long - term is bullish. It is recommended to go long on pull - backs [21][23]. - Aluminum Alloy: The futures and spot prices have risen together, and the short - term market trading is cold. It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to go long on pull - backs [24][27]. - Zinc: The social inventory accumulation trend continues, and the zinc price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [28][30]. - Tin: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the tin price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long after the sentiment stabilizes [31][34]. - Nickel: The war situation continues, and the macro - uncertainty increases. The price fluctuates strongly. It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to operate within the range [34][37]. - Stainless Steel: There is uncertainty in the policy window, and there is a game between raw materials and demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to consider buying out - of - the - money call options [38][40]. - Lithium Carbonate: There is uncertainty in the macro and supply sides, and the futures price adjusts widely. It is not recommended to open new long positions, and use options to protect existing long positions [41][44]. - Polysilicon: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price fluctuates downward. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47]. - Industrial Silicon: Due to environmental inspections in Xinjiang, the futures price has risen. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at around 8,200 yuan/ton and pay attention to position reduction or liquidation [48][49]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel price fluctuates, waiting for the verification of post - holiday demand. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on steel exports and the "Two Sessions" on demand expectations [50][51]. - Iron Ore: The macro - disturbance intensifies, and the supply pressure still exists. The short - term price may fluctuate widely, and the reference range is 730 - 770 [52][53]. - Coking Coal: The spot price is weak, and the power coal price has peaked and fallen. It is recommended to view it with a shock perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,200 [55][57]. - Coke: The steel mills have proposed to lower the coke price, and the futures price fluctuates with coking coal. It is recommended to view it with a shock perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,800 [58][59]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and pay attention to silicon ferrosilicon exports. The short - term price may fluctuate strongly, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [60][62]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese ore price continues to rise. Pay attention to the resumption of manganese silicon production. It is recommended to try short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads [64][66]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The domestic and foreign markets are in a high - level shock, and the domestic soybean meal basis has fallen. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock [67][69]. - Hogs: The hog slaughter pressure is large. Pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening. The short - term price may be weak, and the upward space is limited [70][71]. - Corn: The spot price is firm, and the price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to the change in grain - selling enthusiasm with rising temperatures and the release of policy grain sources [72][74]. - Sugar: The raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic spot price is stable and weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [75]. - Cotton: The cotton price continues to fluctuate, and the adjustment range of the futures price may be limited. Pay attention to downstream orders and weather conditions [77]. - Eggs: The market sales are slow, and the egg price is mainly falling. The short - term price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [80][81]. - Oils and Fats: The oils and fats show a stagnant and adjusted trend. Different oils have different supply - demand and price trends, and pay attention to relevant factors such as production, inventory, and demand [82][86]. - Jujubes: The consumption is weak, and the futures price is under pressure. It is recommended to operate in a light - position band and control risks [88][89]. - Apples: The price of high - quality apples is firm, and the futures price is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory reduction, spot price, and delivery goods [90][91]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: The geopolitical conflict continues. Pay close attention to the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of energy facilities in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the oil price may rise; if it resumes passage, the oil price may fall. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [92][93]. - PX: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the oil price is strong. The short - term PX trend is strong. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and go long in a rolling manner [94][95]. - PTA: The supply - demand drive is limited, but the cost side is strong. The short - term PTA is driven by the cost. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and go long in a rolling manner [96][97]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw materials. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and pay attention to the low - level expansion of the processing fee [98]. - Bottle Chips: The raw materials are expected to be strong in the short term, and the supply of bottle chips is expected to increase. The processing fee may fall. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy, pay attention to the high - level narrowing of the processing fee, and buy call options at low prices [99][100]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand in March is expected to improve, and the cost support is enhanced. It is recommended to go long on the EG5 - 9 spread at low prices [101]. - Pure Benzene: Driven by geopolitical factors, the cost side drives the pure benzene to be strong. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and go long in a rolling manner, and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [102][103]. - Styrene: Driven by geopolitical factors and cost, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream开工 and the dynamics of Iranian styrene plants. Strategies include being cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and narrowing the EB04 - BZ04 spread when it is high [104][105]. - LLDPE: The upstream sells at a loss, and the market trading is weak. The short - term market is strong under cost support and demand recovery expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [106]. - PP: The valuation is low, and the price rises strongly. Pay attention to the sustainability of cost support. It is recommended to take profits on the PL spread [107][108]. - Methanol: The geopolitical risk still exists, and the methanol price fluctuates widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold long positions [108]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the caustic soda price may be adjusted weakly. Pay attention to downstream delivery volume and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [109][110]. - PVC: Geopolitical disturbances bring cost concerns, and the PVC price fluctuates emotionally. The supply - demand is deadlocked, and the price may be pushed up passively [111][112]. - Urea: The demand side improves marginally, and the urea price runs firmly. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions at low prices and follow the crude - oil - related varieties with a low - long idea [113][114]. - Soda Ash: The macro - situation boosts sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [115][117]. - Glass: The downstream resumption of work is less than expected. Pay attention to macro - policies and inventory changes. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [115][119]. - Natural Rubber: The overseas geopolitical situation affects tire demand, and the rubber price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [119][122]. - Synthetic Rubber: The fundamental support is limited, but the geopolitical conflict will drive the BR to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and the short - term view is a wide - range shock [123][124][125]. Container Shipping to Europe - The MSK has opened a position at 2,200 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase compared to the previous period). Pay attention to the actual implementation of the price increase in the off - season. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and run in an enlarged range. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [125][126].
广发早知道：汇总版-20260305
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-03-05 05:47