合成橡胶产业日报-20260305

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost - side support for cis - butadiene rubber continues to be strong due to the ongoing impact of Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the continuous strong performance of the domestic butadiene segment. The domestic cis - butadiene rubber plant capacity utilization remains at a high level. After the holiday, downstream terminal提货 and procurement demand gradually follow up, with the negotiation focus rising and transactions increasing significantly under the background of a sharp increase in the mainstream supply price. Production enterprise inventories have decreased significantly, while trade enterprise inventories have increased slightly. It is expected that the spot - end inventory will still decline significantly under the influence of some device overhauls in late March. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly week - on - week, but the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may limit the improvement of tire enterprise capacity utilization. The BR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 14,210 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 385 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 34,953, with a week - on - week increase of 1,983. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is 100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 155 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 18,840 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 100 tons [2]. b. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical is 13,400 - 13,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 210 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 165 yuan/ton [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 81.4 - 800 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 776.5 - 1380 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 39.25 - 60 dollars/ton. WTI crude oil is 74.66 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 dollars/barrel. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate is 76.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,800 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.58%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.89 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 81.74%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.11 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 459 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 309 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 5.35 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.96 million tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 45,150 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 17,350 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 8,320 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,210 tons [2]. d. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.04 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 44.09 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 days. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 74.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points [2]. e. Industry News - In February 2026, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. The cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry from January to February 2026 exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decrease in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month. As of March 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 18.80% [2].