苹果产业日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas across the country was 527530 tons, a decrease of 25390 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking speed accelerated. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 41.561%, a decrease of 1.45% from the previous week, and that in Shaanxi was 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous week [2]. - The transaction of good and poor apples in the producing areas is significantly differentiated. Good apples maintain a stable and firm price, while the general supply of fruit farmers is slightly weak. Merchants replenish goods as needed. It is expected that the transaction of good apples in the western region will be active in the short term, the overall price will be stable, and the polarization trend will continue [2]. - After the Spring Festival in Shandong, merchants replenish goods as needed, and the atmosphere of replenishment is average. Some fruit farmers are willing to lower prices. In Shaanxi, the number of replenishing merchants is small, and the in - warehouse transaction is a bit cold. The transfer of fruit farmers' goods is mainly low - price general goods, and the trading heat in Shaanxi is slightly lower than that of last year [2]. - As the delivery of the May contract is approaching, the market is worried about having no goods for delivery, and the warehouse receipt cost is high, forming strong support. The price of the short - term apple main contract fluctuates more violently [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 10753 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 304 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 147164 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 279 lots; the net purchase volume of the top 20 futures positions was 17021 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1345 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) was 2.4 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) was 4.2 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) was 3.7 yuan/jin, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in the country was 51285100 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1683400 tons; the apple orchard area in the country was 1955770 hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 19580 hectares; the weekly fruit wholesale price of apples was 9.42 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.36 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg [2]. - The total inventory of national apple cold storage was 527530 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 25390 tons; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.42, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 0.42, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the monthly apple export volume was 160000 tons, with an increase of 40000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year monthly export amount of apples increased by 30.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 14.5 percentage points; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 17753550000 US dollars, with an increase of 6574090000 US dollars; the weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples was 0.3 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears was 6.69 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg; the price of watermelons was 6.88 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg; the price of bananas was 6.52 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan/kg [2]. - The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Jiangmen wholesale market in Guangdong was 12.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 17.95; at the Xiaqiao wholesale market in Guangdong was 15.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 21.75; at the Chalong wholesale market in Guangdong was 23.25, with a week - on - week decrease of 31.95 [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 35.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 35.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.96 percentage points [2].