沪铜产业日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract is oscillating at a low level with an increase in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the copper concentrate TC spot index is in the negative range, and the global supply of copper concentrate may remain tight. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the raw material cost support logic is still strong. On the supply side, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production may lead to a significant increase in the domestic electrolytic copper operating rate. With a favorable domestic copper premium, the resumption of work in the downstream will also drive up some import demand, and the import window may open, increasing the domestic copper supply. On the demand side, after the long holiday, the downstream will also enter the rhythm of resuming work and production. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the operating rate of various downstream copper products is expected to gradually increase. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of rising supply and demand, and the domestic inventory is seasonally accumulating, but the rate may gradually slow down. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.41, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1124, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are below the 0 axis, and the green bars are slightly expanding. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades at low levels with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 101,080.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 580.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,889.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 168.00 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 201,141.00 lots, an increase of 6182.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 75,298.00 lots, a decrease of 4170.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 261,525.00 tons, an increase of 3850.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 391,529.00 tons, an increase of 119054.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 14,775.00 tons, an increase of 1975.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 303,632.00 tons, a decrease of 2856.00 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 600,948.00 short tons, a decrease of 390.00 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,475.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,655.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355.00 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 46.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 45.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 395.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 560.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is +17.80 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.10 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 92,290.00 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 170.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 92,990.00 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 170.00 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 2,400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the North is 1,900.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 100.00 yuan. The monthly production of refined copper is 132.60 tons, an increase of 9.00 tons. The monthly import volume of un - wrought copper and copper products is 440,000.00 tons, an increase of 10000.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 tons, an increase of 0.43 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,240.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 150.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,600.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 150.00 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly production of copper products is 222.91 tons, an increase of 0.31 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 6,395.02 billion yuan, an increase of 791.13 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, an increase of 4197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 ten - thousand pieces, an increase of 415345.50 ten - thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 44.55%, a decrease of 0.00%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 36.04%, an increase of 0.04%. The at - the - money implied volatility of the current month is 23.76%, a decrease of 0.0021%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.41, a decrease of 0.1124 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The government work report shows that China's development is moving towards new and better directions. New - quality productivity is developing steadily, with fruitful scientific and technological innovation achievements. High - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing added values increased by 9.4% and 9.2% respectively, and the output of industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 28% and 10.9% respectively. The annual output of new energy vehicles exceeded 16 million, and the number of electric vehicle charging facilities exceeded 20 million. The energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 5.1%, and the ecological environment quality continued to improve. - At the first press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 4, the spokesman Lou Qinjian said that the draft outline of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will be submitted for review and approval. This year, China will adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, boost consumption, formulate laws such as the Law on Nursery Services, and the central government will introduce more policies for Hong Kong. When responding to international hot issues and new trends in China's foreign policy, he said that China and the US should respect each other, coexist peacefully, and cooperate for win - win results; the essence of China - EU economic and trade relations is complementary advantages and win - win cooperation; China is highly concerned about the situation in Iran and calls for an immediate stop to military operations and the resumption of dialogue and negotiation to maintain peace and stability in the Middle East. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court rejected Trump's reciprocal tariffs. When asked when the US will officially adopt a 15% global tariff rate, he said "possibly sometime this week". - Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points. - China's S&P manufacturing PMI in February was 52.1, higher than the expected 50.2 and the previous value of 50.3; the service industry PMI was 56.7, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.3; the composite PMI was 55.4, higher than the previous value of 51.6 [2].