瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260305

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas have entered a seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. The total inventory in Qingdao ports (bonded and general trade) is accumulating, but the accumulation amplitude has significantly narrowed compared to the previous period. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded significantly this week, and most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,200 - 17,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the 20 - number rubber contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,150 - 13,650 yuan/ton in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,555 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month difference of - 185 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,370 yuan/ton, with a month - to - month difference of - 165 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,185 yuan/ton, and the position of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 4,810 hands to 147,781 hands, while the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract increased by 923 hands to 64,528 hands. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 1,510 to - 44,385, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber decreased by 548 to - 9,892. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 30 tons to 115,040 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber decreased by 202 tons to 50,399 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 10,000 yuan/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L is not provided; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,670 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,690 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,600 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 13,400 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber is 145 yuan/ton, and the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,090 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,928 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 558 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets is 70.88 Thai baht/kg, and the reference price of Thai raw rubber films is 67.51 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 69 Thai baht/kg, and the reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue is 52.95 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 6 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 29.17% (weekly), an increase of 14.97 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 34.56% (weekly), an increase of 20.32 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.04 days (weekly), a decrease of 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 44.09 days (weekly), a decrease of 0.34 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million, a decrease of 150,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million, an increase of 1.29 million [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 26.08% (daily), an increase of 0.2 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.61% (daily), an increase of 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 27.42% (daily), an increase of 1.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.42% (daily), an increase of 1.87 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a 1.82% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%, and the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89% [2]