大越期货PVC期货早报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4960 - 5072. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8][11] - The positive factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory and slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - side: In January 2026, PVC production was 2148630 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 82.08%, a month - on - month increase of 0.00 percentage points. The production of ethylene - based enterprises was 15096 tons, and that of calcium carbide - based enterprises was 35157 tons. The supply pressure increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [8] - Demand - side: The overall downstream operating rate was 17.11%, a month - on - month increase of 7.11 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 11.3%, 13.6%, 26.43%, and 79.51% respectively. Except for the paste resin operating rate being higher than the historical average, the others were lower. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8] - Cost - side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 438.73 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 26.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was 11.19 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 90.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2386.31 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 6.70%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] - Basis: On March 5th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 36 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8] - Inventory: The in - factory inventory was 503951 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 381551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%. The ethylene - based factory inventory was 122400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The social inventory was 615620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 8.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 61.53% [8] - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [8] - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased [8] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including various indicators such as spot prices, inter - month spreads, and inventory data, and their changes compared with the previous values. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 increased by 0.53% compared with the previous value, and the inventory of some enterprises also had corresponding changes [13] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price from 2022 to 2026 [16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report presents the historical spread trends of 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Lancoke: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2016 to 2026 [25] - Calcium carbide: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2026 [28] - Liquid chlorine and raw salt: It presents the price, production trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2026, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2026 [30] - Caustic soda: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2026, as well as the cost - profit and double - ton price difference trends of Shandong chlor - alkali [32][35] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It presents the weekly capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, the profit trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, the daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of sample enterprises of PVC from 2018 to 2026 [37][39] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Sales and pre - sales: It shows the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, and apparent consumption trends of PVC from 2019 to 2026 [41][44] - Downstream operating rates: It presents the average operating rate of PVC downstream, as well as the operating rate trends of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2022 to 2026 [44][46] - Paste resin: It shows the profit, monthly production, cost, and apparent consumption trends of paste resin from 2019 to 2026 [48][49][50] - Real estate and infrastructure: It presents the real estate investment completion amount, cumulative housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2018 to 2026 [52][55] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2026 [57] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It presents the import volume trends of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane from 2020 to 2025, the export volume trend of PVC from 2018 to 2026, and the price difference trends of ethylene - based FOB (Tianjin - Taiwan) and vinyl chloride import (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2020 to 2026 [59] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from 2024 to 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [62]