大越期货燃料油早报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of Singapore fuel oil market is expected to be tight due to the Middle - East conflict restricting the arbitrage cargo volume flowing to Asia, and the downstream marine fuel demand is gradually recovering as some end - users scramble to secure regular supplies. The potential increase in demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in the power generation sector may further support the Singapore fuel oil market [3]. - The spot price of fuel oil is at a premium to the futures price. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. The high - sulfur main position has short positions with a decrease in shorts, while the low - sulfur main position has long positions with an increase in longs [3]. - Overnight crude oil stabilized at a high level. Although the US allowing some countries to buy Russian crude oil slightly eases supply concerns in the short term, due to the uncertain war situation and extremely low strait navigation, there is still support below the fuel oil price. The FU2605 is expected to operate in the range of 3800 - 3900, and the LU2605 in the range of 4290 - 4380 [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. The risk points include the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The FU2605 is expected to operate in the range of 3800 - 3900, and the LU2605 in the range of 4290 - 4380. Overnight crude oil stabilized at a high level. The US allowing some countries to buy Russian crude oil slightly eases supply concerns in the short term, but due to the uncertain war situation and extremely low strait navigation, there is still support below the fuel oil price [3]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be bullish: The Middle - East conflict restricts the arbitrage cargo volume flowing to Asia, and the downstream marine fuel demand is gradually recovering. The potential increase in demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in the power generation sector may further support the market. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, and the price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line upward. The low - sulfur main position has long positions with an increase in longs [3]. - Likely to be bearish: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of March 4 increased by 1870,000 barrels to 25.749 million barrels. The high - sulfur main position has short positions with a decrease in shorts. The demand side's optimism remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [3][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Supply: The Middle - East conflict restricts the arbitrage cargo volume flowing to Asia, and the market expects the supply in the Singapore region to be increasingly tight [3]. - Demand: The downstream marine fuel demand is gradually recovering as some end - users scramble to secure regular supplies. The potential increase in demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in the power generation sector may further support the market [3]. - Price: The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 594.14 US dollars per ton with a basis of 349 yuan per ton, and the Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 642.56 US dollars per ton with a basis of 214 yuan per ton. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The FU - LU spread chart is provided, but no specific data analysis is made [9]. 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of March 4 was 25.749 million barrels, an increase of 1.87 million barrels [3][7].