大越期货贵金属早报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The market is waiting for the non - farm data. Poland plans to sell its gold reserves for defense financing, causing the gold price to fall. The US and European stock markets declined, US bond yields rose, and the US dollar index increased. The COMEX gold futures dropped 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce. The short - term gold price was affected by Poland's potential gold sale, and although the feasibility is uncertain, it will still put pressure on the price. Geopolitical concerns have cooled, but inflation concerns have increased. Attention should be paid to today's non - farm data [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price also fell as the market awaited non - farm data and due to Poland's potential gold sale. The COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce. The risk preference is low, and the safe - haven sentiment still provides some support, but the silver price is weak [5]. - Macro - logic: With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, providing macro - level support. For silver, regulatory pressure remains, and the weakness of US technology stocks makes it difficult to restore the sentiment towards silver prices [9][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Gold: US and European stock markets closed down, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield rose 4.04 basis points to 4.136%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.04, and the COMEX gold futures fell 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the US and European stock markets declined, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index went up, and the COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 3 (spot at a discount to futures), the gold futures warehouse receipts are 105060 kg and unchanged, the 20 - day moving average is downward, the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, the main net position is long but with a decrease in long positions. The expected events for the day include the US February non - farm data, the euro - zone Q4 GDP revised value, and intensive speeches by Fed and ECB members [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 569 (spot at a discount to futures), the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 22102 kg to 272721 kg, the 20 - day moving average is downward, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, the main net position is long but with a decrease in long positions [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Events: At 15:00, there will be a press conference on the economic theme of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress; at 18:00, the euro - zone Q4 GDP revised value will be released, and ECB Governing Council member Wunsch will speak; at 21:30, the US February non - farm payrolls change, unemployment rate, and January retail sales data will be announced, and ECB Executive Board member Cipollone will attend the meeting of the Executive Committee of the European Banking Federation (EBF); at 23:00, the US December business inventory data will be released; at 23:15, San Francisco Fed President Daly and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will participate in a panel discussion on "The Value of Private - Sector Data for US Monetary Policy Making"; at 00:30 the next day, Kansas City Fed President Schmid will talk about monetary policy and the economic outlook, and Fed Governor Waller will speak on CNBC; at 01:00 the next day, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel will speak; at 02:20 the next day, 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will speak; at 02:30 the next day, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak about the US dollar's safe - haven status, and RBA Deputy Governor Bullock will speak [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3, the gold futures warehouse receipts are 105060 kg and unchanged. The mid - term election brings continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, providing macro - level support [4][9]. - Silver: The basis is - 569, the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 22102 kg to 272721 kg. The regulatory pressure remains, and the weakness of US technology stocks makes it difficult to restore the sentiment towards silver prices. There are also factors such as global turmoil, potential Fed easing, and support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, as well as low spot inventory and a hot supply - shortage game [5][12][13]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 4.79% to 155,716, short positions increased by 0.64% to 42,969, and the net position decreased by 6.70% to 112,747. The SPDR gold ETF holdings have turned to a decrease [4][37][42]. - Silver: The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 2.20% to 273,112, short positions decreased by 2.44% to 271,108, and the net position increased by 47.14% to 2,004. The silver ETF holdings decreased slightly [5][40][44].