大越期货玻璃早报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The glass market is currently bearish. The production profit of glass has been slightly restored, but cold repairs are less than expected, resulting in low supply. The downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate downturn, and the inventory is at a historically high level. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the inventory is increasing. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions are net short. In the short term, the glass market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 1038 yuan/ton to 1055 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.64%. The spot price of Shahe safety large - plate glass remained unchanged at 956 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 82 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, a change of 20.73% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 956 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Cost - side of Fundamentals - The production profit of glass has been slightly restored, and the production volume is decreasing due to low profit [2][4]. Production Line and Output of Glass - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 209, with an operating rate of 70.61%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [18][20]. Demand of Fundamentals - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [24]. Inventory of Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 79.637 million weight boxes, an increase of 4.77% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][39]. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [40].