大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,822 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, lithium carbonate production was 83,090 physical tons, and next month's production is predicted to be 106,390 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. The January - February 2026 import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 physical tons, and next month's import volume is predicted to be 26,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.27% [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 92,556 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,234 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 151,494 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production profit is - 325 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 154,659 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production profit is - 4,249 yuan/ton, also showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production profit and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On March 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 140 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 18,382 tons, with no month - on - month change, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,757 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.34%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 38,140 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.51%, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 99,373 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%, lower than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased [8]. - Expectation: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 148,840 - 161,120 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,822 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, lithium carbonate production was 83,090 physical tons, and next month's production is predicted to be 106,390 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. The January - February 2026 import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 physical tons, and next month's import volume is predicted to be 26,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.27% [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 92,556 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.50%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,234 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 151,494 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production profit is - 325 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 154,659 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The production profit is - 4,249 yuan/ton, also showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production profit and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Basis: On March 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 140 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 18,382 tons, with no month - on - month change, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,757 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.34%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 38,140 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.51%, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 99,373 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%, lower than the historical average [8]. - Market: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased [8]. - Expectation: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 148,840 - 161,120 [8]. - Bullish factors: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, and the month - on - month decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [9]. - Bearish factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [10]. - Main logic: Under the tight balance of supply and demand, the market sentiment fluctuates due to news [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of upstream products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium salts, as well as the prices and basis of the market, are presented. For example, the price of 6% lithium spodumene is 2,155 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.28%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 156,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.30% [14]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate is 85.72%, with no change. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene is 151,494 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in February 2026 was 83,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% [16]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is 6.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14%. The monthly production is 300,250 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%. The monthly operating rate of ternary precursors is 67.83%, with no change. The monthly production is 70,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.77% [16]. - Inventory Data: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 99,373 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. The smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, with no change. The downstream inventory is 43,757 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.34% [16]. - Position Data: The main positions are net short, and short positions increased [8].