大越期货豆粕早报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2840 - 2900. The US soybeans are in a short - term strong oscillation, waiting for the follow - up of the China - US trade agreement implementation and the weather in South American soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal is affected by the US soybean trend and spot price premium, and may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term due to mixed news [9]. - Soybeans (A2605): It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4700. The US soybeans are in a short - term strong oscillation. The domestic soybeans are in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the expected increase in imported soybean arrivals and technical adjustments exist, the short - term good demand supports the market. The follow - up China - US trade negotiations still have uncertainties [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2840 and 2900, and soybean A2605 is expected to oscillate between 4600 and 4700 [9][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market oscillates above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, waiting for the South American soybean harvest and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China continues to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a relatively high level in January. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal returns to the range oscillation in the short term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remains low in March, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal cross - affect to maintain the range - oscillation pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations affects the short - term range - oscillation of soybean meal, waiting for the clear South American soybean yield and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in March; the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is advancing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of the South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [13]. Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [14]. - Bearish Factors: Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and China increases the purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [14]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From February 25 to March 5, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From February 26 to March 5, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From February 24 to March 5, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025, including harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 [33][34][38]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The report provides the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026, including planting area, yield, output, etc. [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [44]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and increased year - on - year [46]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills continued to decline, and the soybean meal inventory remained at a relatively high level [49]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills dropped to a low level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [51]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fluctuated slightly, and the short - term stocking demand weakened [53]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans oscillated and declined following the US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly [55]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [57]. - The pig price declined slightly recently, and the piglet price fluctuated slightly [59]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [61]. - The loss of domestic pig - raising profits expanded [63]. - The pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio dropped to a low level [65].