Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with the total domestic asphalt production scheduled for March 2026 at 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 21.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 0%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 4%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [9]. - The daily asphalt processing profit is - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - The overall view is that the fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory shows that social and factory inventories are accumulating while port inventory is decreasing, the disk is bullish, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3609 - 3709 in the short term [9][10]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The total domestic asphalt production scheduled for March 2026 is 2.187 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 23.0705%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80%. The refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 21.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 0%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 4%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [9]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 182.83 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.20%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 64.8129 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Comprehensive Judgment: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bearish, the inventory shows that social and factory inventories are accumulating while port inventory is decreasing, the disk is bullish, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3609 - 3709 in the short term [9][10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The prices of most contracts have decreased slightly, such as the 06 contract closing at 3660, a decrease of 13 from the previous day, a decline of 0.35% [16]. - Basis: On March 5th, the Shandong spot price is 3550 yuan/ton, and the 06 contract basis is - 110 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 1.096 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93%; the factory inventory is 729,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.34%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 770,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [10][18]. - Other Data: The weekly output of sample enterprises is 385,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%; the weekly maintenance volume is 1.189 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.80%; the weekly shipment volume is 130,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend The report provides the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [20][21][22]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contracts [25][26]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [28][29]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the refining profit margins [31][32][33]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the relative price relationships [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the regional price differences [38][39]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [41][42]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the profit differences between coking and asphalt production [44][45][46]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2026, which can help analyze the supply situation [47][48]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation [50][51]. - Output: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly output from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the production capacity and output changes [53][54]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: The report presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [57][59]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the production situation of local refineries [60][61]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report presents the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the production efficiency [63][64]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The report shows the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2026, which can help analyze the impact of equipment maintenance on production [66][67]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [69][70][71]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The report presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the overall inventory situation [73][74]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026, which can help analyze the inventory management efficiency [76][77]. - Import and Export Situation: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import spread from 2019 to 2025, which can help analyze the international trade situation of asphalt [79][80][83]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Output: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the petroleum coke production process [85][86]. - Apparent Consumption: The report presents the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the overall demand for asphalt [87][88]. - Downstream Demand: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, roller sales, excavator monthly working hours, heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream construction situation from 2019 to 2026, which can help analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [90][91][92][94][95][96][98][99][100][102][103][104][105]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which can help analyze the overall supply - demand situation of asphalt [107][108].
沥青期货早报-20260306
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-03-06 02:18