大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - 焦煤: The supply side of the coking coal market remains in a loose state, with production capacity basically restored to the pre - holiday normal level. However, the downstream demand has not recovered after the Spring Festival. The steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts this year, and the overall price trend of coking coal is weak. Although the operating rate of downstream coking enterprises has increased slightly, the willingness to replenish inventory on a large scale is not strong. It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - 焦炭: After the Spring Festival, there have been continuous calls for price cuts in the market, and most participants are bearish. The support of costs for coke prices has weakened, and the first - round price cut of coke is likely to be implemented soon. The supply of coke remains sufficient, and the inventory in most coking enterprises has increased significantly. Considering the weak steel price and the fact that the resumption of work and production of steel mills has not met expectations, it is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - 焦煤 - 基本面: The supply is loose, and the demand has not recovered, with a neutral outlook [2]. - 基差: The spot price is 1175, and the basis is 69.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - 库存: The total sample inventory is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons from last week, which is bullish [2]. - 盘面: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [3]. - 主力持仓: The main position of coking coal is net long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [3]. - 预期: It is expected that the coking coal price will run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - 利多因素: Rising hot metal production and limited supply increase [5]. - 利空因素: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. - 焦炭 - 基本面: There are continuous calls for price cuts, and the cost support is weak. The first - round price cut is likely to be implemented, with a bearish outlook [6]. - 基差: The spot price is 1620, and the basis is - 56.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [6]. - 库存: The total sample inventory is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week, which is bullish [6]. - 盘面: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - 主力持仓: The main position of coke is net long, with long positions increasing, which is bullish [6]. - 预期: It is expected that coke will run weakly and stably in the short term [6]. - 利多因素: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [8]. - 利空因素: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Price The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on March 5th, including prices of different grades of metallurgical coke from various ports and regions [9]. Inventory - 港口库存: Coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, unchanged from last week; coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from last week [21]. - 独立焦企库存: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from last week; coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons from last week [25]. - 钢厂库存: Coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from last week; coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons from last week [30].