大越期货尿素早报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with the main contract of urea showing a strong and volatile trend. The daily production is at a high level year - on - year, industrial demand is weak but reserve demand is good, agricultural demand has room to rise in the near term, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be volatile [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, with the restart of some natural gas plants, the daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is still at a historical high. Industrial demand is weak overall but has a recovery expectation. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased, while that of melamine has decreased. Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and comprehensive inventories have accumulated. The international price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. On February 12, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association issued a statement on the market speculation of the urea guidance price, emphasizing that the medium - and long - term urea price should be stable. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is 36, and the premium/discount ratio is 1.9%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive inventory of UR is 1.35 million tons (+154,000), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the main contract of UR is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main contract of UR is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to be volatile and strong. The daily production is at a high level year - on - year, industrial demand is weak but reserve demand is good, agricultural demand has room to rise in the near term, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be volatile [4]. - Likely Factors: Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and overseas prices are continuously strengthening [5]. - Negative Factors: The daily production is at a historical high [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - Main Risk Point: Changes in export policies [5] Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1850 (-10), Shandong spot is 1880 (0), Henan spot is 1850 (0), and FOB China is 3315 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 05 contract is 1814 (-8), the basis is 36 (-2), UR01 is 1805 (17), UR05 is 1814 (-8), and UR09 is 1829 (17) [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 1275 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.35 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 1.176 million tons, and UR port inventory is 174,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]