大越期货棉花早报-20260306

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market. Overall, the market has both positive and negative factors. Positively, the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to reduce by over 10%, there is pre - holiday downstream inventory replenishment, the US tariffs on cotton exports have been reduced, Sino - US relations have eased, and the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are approaching. Negatively, overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton has entered the market, and it is currently in the traditional consumption off - season. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term [4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - There is no information about the previous day's review in the provided content. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: ICAC predicts 25 million tons of global consumption and 24.8 million tons of production for the 26/27 season. In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area regulation may lead to a reduction of over 10%. USDA's February report shows 26.096 million tons of production, 25.847 million tons of consumption, and 16.353 million tons of ending inventory for the 25/26 season. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a 7.4% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in December were 180,000 tons, a 31% year - on - year increase, and棉纱 imports were 170,000 tons, a 13.33% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 25/26 season shows 6.64 million tons of production, 1.4 million tons of imports, 7.6 million tons of consumption, and 8.29 million tons of ending inventory [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,583, with a basis of 1333 (for the 05 contract), indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a positive factor [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 25/26 season shows 8.29 million tons of ending inventory, which is a negative factor [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position has decreased, and the main trend is unclear, still considered a positive factor [4]. - Expectation: With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" for cotton, the reduction of US tariffs, and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. Cotton is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: The total production in 2025/26 is 26.096 million tons, with a 1% year - on - year increase; the total consumption is 25.847 million tons, with a slight year - on - year decrease; the total ending inventory is 16.353 million tons, with a 2% year - on - year increase. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory [10][11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In the 2025/26 season, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [13]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Data: For the 2025/26 season, the production is 6.64 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.