农产品早报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - Corn: After the Spring Festival, short - term supply is limited and prices are strongly supported. Pay attention to the volume of supply after the festival, especially in North China. If there is no expected selling pressure, downstream replenishment will push prices up. In the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gaps [4]. - Starch: After the Spring Festival, with low inventory pressure, prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term. In the long - term, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory changes [4]. - Sugar: Internationally, India's production cut and ISO's adjustment of the global surplus estimate, along with strong crude oil, may boost prices. Domestically, post - holiday discussions on import policies and India's production cut lead to a strong - oscillating market [6]. - Cotton: Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, consumption - promoting policies, and good exports, demand is expected to improve. New - season planting area in Xinjiang will decline, so it is suitable for long - term investment [9]. - Eggs: Post - festival channel replenishment pushes up prices. Although production is in a slight loss, low current inventory and delayed chicken culling lead to a lower supply pressure in the near - term than last year. However, delayed culling will suppress prices during the rainy season, so an anti - spread strategy is recommended [13]. - Apples: After the Spring Festival, the sales volume slows down. Fruit farmers' general - quality fruit prices are stable, and high - quality fruit prices remain strong [15]. - Pigs: Post - festival consumption is in the off - season, and the supply pressure remains in the medium - term. Pay attention to changes in farmers' selling weight, second - fattening expectations, and frozen meat storage. Futures are easily affected by emotions [15]. 3. Key Points by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price data from 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05 shows changes in prices in different regions, such as a 10 - yuan increase in the prices in Jinzhou and Weifang for corn, and 0 - yuan change in the prices in Changchun and Shekou. The starch price in Weifang remained unchanged, while the processing profit of starch had a 0 - yuan change [3]. Sugar - Price data from 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05 shows that the prices in Liuzhou and Nanning were stable at 5390 yuan and 5350 yuan respectively on 2026/03/05, with a 10 - yuan increase in Nanning compared to the initial date. The basis in Liuzhou decreased by 22 [5][19]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - From 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 50 yuan, and the "仓单+预报" increased by 132. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 103, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 52 [9]. Eggs - From 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05, the prices in Hebei and Liaoning decreased by 0.06 yuan and 0.07 yuan respectively, and the basis decreased by 75 [13]. Apples - From 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05, the prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900 yuan, and the national inventory was 470.52 on 2026/03/05 [14][15]. Pigs - From 2026/02/27 to 2026/03/05, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.25 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.05 yuan respectively. The basis decreased by 260 [15].