大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. Due to the upgraded situation in the Middle East and the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the external crude oil price has gapped up, which provides significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today, with cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are slow, while the packaging film has low - load rigid - demand operation and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector has started production one after another. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7320 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 73, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.4 tons (-3.3), which is neutral [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [6] - Negative Factors: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable. The demand in the north recovers relatively fast but with limited increment. The BOPP resumes work quickly but faces competition and some finished - product inventory pressure. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7500 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 42, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.5 tons (-8.5), which is neutral [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [8] - Negative Factors: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7320, up 100; the price of the 05 contract is 7393, up 38; the basis is - 73, up 62; the warehouse receipt is 8709, down 241; the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 59.4 tons, down 3.3 [9] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 7500, up 150; the price of the 05 contract is 7458, down 48; the basis is 42, up 198; the warehouse receipt is 18584, down 2260; the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 65.5 tons, down 8.5 [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, while the import dependence shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, and the import dependence also shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]