工业硅期货早报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week with a supply of 69,000 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week increase. The demand decreased to 61,000 tons, an 8.95% week - on - week decrease. The overall situation shows that the supply is increasing while the demand is low. The cost support has risen in the dry season, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8470 - 8660 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. The demand shows some recovery but may be weak later. The cost support is stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 41235 - 43325 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 61,000 tons, an 8.95% week - on - week decrease. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers are in a loss state, battery cells are profitable, and components are profitable. The inventory of organic silicon is at a low level, and its comprehensive operating rate is 63.28%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level, and the import is in a loss state [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9769.7 yuan/ton, a 0% week - on - week decrease. The cost support has risen in the dry season [6]. - Basis: On March 5th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China is 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 535 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 1.25% week - on - week decrease. The sample enterprise inventory is 196,100 tons, a 3.20% week - on - week decrease. The main port inventory is 135,000 tons, a 2.17% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [6]. - Expectation: The supply production is increasing, the demand is at a low level but shows signs of recovery, the cost support has risen, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8470 - 8660 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 19,800 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week decrease. The planned production in March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% month - on - month increase [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.35GW, a 12.93% week - on - week increase, and the inventory was 310,600 tons, a 3.32% week - on - week increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production in March is 49.01GW, a 10.70% month - on - month increase. The production of battery cells in February was 37.09GW, a 10.49% month - on - month decrease. The external sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 8.72GW, a 6.33% week - on - week decrease. Currently, the production is profitable. The planned production in March is 46.36GW, a 24.99% month - on - month increase. The production of components in February was 29.3GW, a 16.76% month - on - month decrease. The expected production of components in March is 41.39GW, a 41.26% month - on - month increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% month - on - month decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 38.41GW, a 12.30% month - on - month increase. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 6380 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On March 5th, the price of N - type dense material is 47,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 6720 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 348,000 tons, a 1.16% week - on - week increase, at a historical high [8]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes below MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a reduction in long positions [8]. - Expectation: The supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. The demand for silicon wafers continues to increase, the production of battery cells increases in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term, and the production of components increases in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. The overall demand shows some recovery but may be weak later. The cost support is stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 41235 - 43325 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon Market Overview: The prices of different contracts of industrial silicon futures have different degrees of increase or decrease. The spot prices of different types of industrial silicon remain stable. The inventory shows a decreasing trend, and the production and operating rate of some regions also have corresponding changes [15]. - Polysilicon Market Overview: The prices of different contracts of polysilicon futures have different degrees of increase or decrease. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and polysilicon materials also have corresponding changes. The inventory of polysilicon shows an increasing trend, and the production and demand of related products also have corresponding changes [17].