沪镍&不锈钢早报-20260306

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - 沪镍: The external market has fallen below the 20 - day moving average again and fluctuates around it. Supply is sufficient with increasing production in January and rising inventories. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, but there is a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and poor trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices have rebounded, and the cost line is supported and slightly shifted upwards. Stainless steel consumption was poor during the Spring Festival, and inventory has increased significantly. If inventory digestion is ineffective, it may suppress price rebounds. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. Overall, it is bearish, but the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with a decrease in long positions. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - 不锈钢: Spot stainless steel prices have risen. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, nickel - iron prices have rebounded, and the cost line has strong support. Stainless steel inventory continues to rise. It is neutral, but the basis is bullish. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2604 fluctuates widely around the 20 - day moving average [3]. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures prices: On March 5th, the SHFE nickel main contract was at 136,270, down 1,140 from March 4th; the LME nickel was at 17,215, down 335; the stainless steel main contract was at 14,115, down 105. The nickel index was at 135,750, down 1,850, and the cold - rolled coil index was at 13,726, down 123 [7]. - Spot prices: On March 5th, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 140,350, down 200; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 143,650, down 450; 1 imported nickel was at 136,800, down 250; nickel beans were at 139,450, down 200. Cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi was at 15,100, up 50; in Foshan it was at 15,100, unchanged; in Hangzhou it was at 15,100, up 50; in Shanghai it was at 15,150, up 50 [7]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 27th, the SHFE nickel inventory was 60,791 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,131 tons, an increase of 2,016 tons and 673 tons respectively. On March 5th, LME nickel inventory was 287,550 tons (unchanged), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 53,567 tons, down 65 tons, and the total inventory was 341,117 tons, down 65 tons [9][10]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 27th, the inventory in Wuxi was 646,700 tons, in Foshan was 377,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,172,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 728,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,600 tons. On March 5th, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 52,075 tons, an increase of 544 tons [14][15]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 74 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; (Ni0.9%) was 31 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 10.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 11.5 US dollars per ton, both unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 1,085.81 yuan per nickel point, up 0.24; the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [18]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 14,151 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 14,298 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 18,009 yuan [20]. Nickel Import Cost Estimation - The import price was converted to 134,557 yuan per ton [23].