大越期货白糖早报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Zheng sugar has been oscillating upwards after the Spring Festival, with the K-line standing above the long-term moving average. Technically, it shows a trend of moving out of the right-side market. Downstream enterprises start to replenish their inventories after the festival, market demand begins to recover, crude oil prices rise, and the price of sugar-made ethanol increases, which indirectly supports the price of white sugar. The center of white sugar has shifted upwards, and a short-term oscillating and bullish mindset is maintained [5][8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Datagro predicts a sugar shortage of 2.68 million tons in the 26/27 sugar season. ISO expects a global sugar market surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season, down from the previous estimate of 1.63 million tons. Covrig Analytics predicts that the global sugar surplus in the 26/27 season will shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than the 4.7 million tons in the 25/26 season. Green Pool expects a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,380, and the basis is 50 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of January in the 25/26 sugar season, the industrial inventory was 3.99 million tons [5]. - Market Chart: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - Expectation: Zheng sugar has been oscillating upwards after the Spring Festival, with the K-line standing above the long-term moving average. Technically, it shows a trend of moving out of the right-side market. Downstream enterprises start to replenish their inventories after the festival, market demand begins to recover, crude oil prices rise, and the price of sugar-made ethanol increases, which indirectly supports the price of white sugar. The center of white sugar has shifted upwards, and a short-term oscillating and bullish mindset is maintained [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecasts by Different Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 25/26 and 26/27 seasons. For example, ISO expects a surplus of 1.22 million tons in the 25/26 season; Green Pool expects a surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season [4][8]. - Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data: As of the end of January 2026, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 6.89 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 2.9 million tons; the sugar sales rate was 42.09%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 190,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,800 tons [4]. - Sugar Planting and Yield Data: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, data on sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields per hectare, and sugar production are provided. For example, in 2025/26, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons [33]. - Price Data: International and domestic sugar prices are provided. For example, the international sugar price in 2025/26 is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [33]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].