甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PVC, the V basis is -330, a week-on-week increase of 10. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price of ethylene method is 575, and that of calcium carbide method is 570, and the sustainability needs further observation. Coal price is 600 with no change, and semi-coke price is 820 with no change. Semi-coke profit is poor, and calcium carbide profit is also poor. The ex-factory price of Shandong spot is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of purchased calcium carbide chlor-alkali is around -600. Ethylene and calcium carbide prices are stable. Upstream prices are stable this week, with an operating rate of 79.7%, a week-on-week increase of 1.1%. This week, the operating rate of calcium carbide method is 79.7%, a week-on-week increase of 1.3%, and that of ethylene method is 79.6%, a week-on-week increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. Upstream factory inventory is 30.9, a week-on-week increase of 0.4w, PVC social inventory is 111.4w, a week-on-week increase of 5w, 106 in East China with a week-on-week increase of 5w, and 5.4 tons in South China with no week-on-week change. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and exports are flat week-on-week. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, seasonal production resumes. Pay attention to downstream restocking. Overall, export volume is relatively large this year. Observe the sustainability of subsequent exports. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets is still weak. Comprehensively, in the medium and long term, the expected pattern of PVC is still poor [20] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol and Polyolefin - Methanol data includes Hebei discount price, Northwest discount price, CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia, import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit on the futures market. For example, on March 6, 2026, the Hebei discount price is 801, the Northwest discount price is 2165, etc. There are also daily changes in these data, such as a 50 increase in the Northwest discount price [1][2] Plastic - Data includes Northeast Asia ethylene, North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, East China HD, LL in US dollars, LL in US Gulf, import profit, main futures, basis, two major oil inventories, and warehouse receipts. For example, on February 27, 2026, Northeast Asia ethylene is 710, North China LL is 6430, etc. There are also daily changes, such as a 70 increase in North China LL [12] PVC - Data includes Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, calcium carbide method in East China, ethylene method in East China, calcium carbide method in South China, calcium carbide method in Northwest, import US dollar price (CFR China), export profit, Northwest comprehensive profit, North China comprehensive profit, and basis (high-end delivery product). For example, on February 27, 2026, Northwest calcium carbide is 2250, Shandong caustic soda is 657, etc. There are also daily changes, such as a 150 increase in the calcium carbide method in East China [18][19][20]