大越期货沪铝早报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral, with carbon - neutral policies controlling capacity expansion, domestic supply approaching the ceiling, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The macro - short - term sentiment is changeable. The basis shows a premium on the futures, and the inventory of SHFE aluminum has increased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is downward. The main position is net long but with a decrease in long positions. In the long - term, carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and be bullish for aluminum prices. In the short - term, aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. - There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand. Bullish factors include carbon - neutral capacity control, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts. Bearish factors are the unoptimistic global economy suppressing downstream consumption due to high aluminum prices and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion, domestic supply is near the ceiling, downstream demand is not strong, real - estate remains weak, and macro - short - term sentiment is changeable, evaluated as neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 25,120, the basis is 305, with a premium on the futures, evaluated as bullish [2]. - Inventory: The SHFE aluminum inventory has increased by 58,646 tons to 355,986 tons compared to last week, evaluated as neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is downward, evaluated as neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long, but the long positions are decreasing, evaluated as bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon - neutral policies will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry, being long - term bullish for aluminum prices. Due to changeable macro - sentiment, aluminum prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: Carbon - neutral policies control capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - Bearish Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. Daily Summary - Spot Price: Shanghai's yesterday's spot price was 70,770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70,690, down 450; today's Shanghai Yangtze River spot price was 70,870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai's inventory was 70,798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; LME inventory (daily) was 74,750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) was 136,300 tons, an increase of 29,728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table of aluminum shows that from 2018 - 2023, there was a supply shortage in most years, with shortages of 47.61, 68.61, 14.2, 29.98, and 4.31 million tons respectively. In 2020, there was a surplus of 1.3 million tons, and in 2024, it is expected to have a surplus of 15 million tons [23].