建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260306

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report Date: March 6, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy Chemical Research Team Members: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 3. Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2701 | 7217 | 7236 | 7300 | 7077 | 139 | 1.96 | 1960 | -248 | | Plastic 2605 | 7350 | 7355 | 7529 | 7140 | 262 | 3.69 | 381697 | -55231 | | Plastic 2609 | 7250 | 7270 | 7354 | 7095 | 169 | 2.38 | 97714 | -5101 | | PP2701 | 7158 | 7104 | 7197 | 6970 | 92 | 1.31 | 4321 | 61 | | PP2605 | 7450 | 7506 | 7646 | 7188 | 376 | 5.27 | 464543 | -38423 | | PP2609 | 7243 | 7226 | 7326 | 7046 | 145 | 2.05 | 136754 | 2123 | [5] Spot Market Quotes - On March 5, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (2.94%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 820,000 tons. - PE market prices mostly increased. The LLDPE price in North China was 7,300 - 7,800 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,350 - 8,000 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,700 - 8,000 yuan/ton. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 7,340 - 7,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton from the previous working day. - The PP futures market continued to operate strongly at a high level, supporting market sentiment. The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,150 - 7,300 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,350 - 7,500 yuan/ton. [7] 4. Market Analysis and Outlook - The trading core of the current market has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics, and the weight of fundamental factors has decreased temporarily. - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has further escalated. The high - level crude oil price will support the polyolefin futures market from the cost side. Coupled with the expected reduction in imports of raw materials such as methanol and propane, which will compress profits and lead to more - than - expected plant maintenance, polyolefin prices are expected to gain short - term upward momentum. - The spot - end price center continued to rise. Downstream buyers replenished stocks due to fear of price increases, and traders stopped selling. - There were frequent and repeated news about the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz during the day, and market sentiment fluctuated rapidly with the news. The sustainability of geopolitical risk premium faces great uncertainty. [6]