建信期货钢材日评-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news has a limited positive impact on the expected price of the steel market. In terms of fundamentals, as time passes, the low steel production will conflict with the warming spring demand. It is expected that there may be an inflection point from weak to strong after the first ten - day period of March. Although the 4 - year - 10 - month decline cycle may be approaching the end, the subsequent rebound path is still unclear, and investors or operators need to prepare for long - term market fluctuations [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 5, the prices of individual rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rebounded. The rebar prices in Hangzhou, Zhengzhou, and Chongqing rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil prices in Jinan, Fuzhou, and Nanning rose by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract rose, with the J value slightly rebounding, and the K and D values continuing to rise. The daily KDJ indicator of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J value continuing to decline, the K value slightly falling back, and the D value continuing to rise. The daily MACD red bar of the rebar 2605 contract has been expanding for 2 consecutive trading days, and the daily MACD green bar of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract has been narrowing for 7 consecutive trading days [8] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: On March 5, it was reported that Iran has promised to ensure the safe passage of Chinese ships based on the long - term energy cooperation between China and Iran. There were also reports that China may urge enterprises to suspend signing new refined oil export contracts. On February 28 (local time), the US and Israel launched a military strike on Iran, seriously affecting the Hormuz Strait, an important energy transportation route, and causing a significant increase in international crude oil prices. Some steel mills in the Tangshan area have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the Two Sessions, requiring them to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with the blast furnace load to be independently reduced by no less than 30% [9][10] - Fundamentals: Two weeks after the Spring Festival, the weekly output of the five major steel products returned to a low level, the steel mill inventory reached a peak and then declined, the social inventory continued to increase significantly, and the steel mill and social inventories reached new highs since mid - April 2024 and mid - May 2024 respectively. The weekly demand has rebounded from the lowest level since late February 2024 and returned to the pre - Spring Festival level [10] - Raw materials: One week after the Spring Festival, the port iron ore inventory rebounded again and approached the record high since December 2015 set on February 6. The steel mill's iron ore inventory naturally fell back to a 23 - day available level. The shipment volume of imported iron ore in the past 4 weeks decreased by 2.6% month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased by 15.2% month - on - month. It is expected that the arrival volume will continue to decline for 1 - 2 weeks. The steel mill's iron ore inventory has been basically flat after two consecutive weeks of decline from the high since early February last year, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. From February 23 to the end of February, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume rebounded to the normal level of 15.6 - 19.9 tons, but the steel mill's coking coal inventory has significantly declined in the past week, giving back all the increases since late November last year, and the coking plant's coking coal inventory has also significantly declined, hitting a new low since mid - October last year [10] 3.2 Industry News - The 2025 government work report proposed 109 major projects in 6 aspects in the "Outline (Draft)" to promote the implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" goals. It also proposed the main expected development goals for 2026, including an economic growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a target for the urban surveyed unemployment rate of around 5.5%, over 12 million new urban jobs, a consumer price increase of around 2%, and a reduction of about 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP [12][13] - The 2025 government work report also mentioned measures for the real estate market, such as controlling the increment, reducing the inventory, and optimizing the supply of commercial housing, reforming the housing provident fund system, and promoting the construction of "good houses" [13] - The Shanxi delegation to the 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress plans to put forward suggestions in 8 aspects, including promoting the high - value utilization of coal and creating a national important energy and raw material base [13] - Middle East oil producers are facing production cuts due to the Iran war blocking the main export artery, and Iraq has been forced to cut production on a large scale. Morgan Stanley warns that other countries may follow suit in a few weeks [13] - The US new 15% "global import tariff" is expected to take effect this week [13] - In February, Mongolia's ETT exported 221.74 tons of coal through two ports. In February 2026, Russian railways transported 1358.8 tons of export coal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. From January to February, the cumulative transportation volume of export coal was 2773.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.76%. From January to February 2026, the freight volume of the Russian railway company's transportation network was 1.74 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%, and the coal transportation volume was 52.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [13] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data charts on various aspects of the steel industry, including the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and May contracts, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [15][21][24]