铝日报-20260306

1. Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: March 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 3. Core View - The recent rise in aluminum prices is mainly due to overseas supply disruptions. The conflict in the Middle East has led to potential supply shortages, with about 9% of global aluminum production capacity and over 4.5 million tons of export trade potentially affected. This supports the strong performance of aluminum prices. However, the market is also affected by the war's high uncertainty. It is recommended to participate with low long positions and focus on the development of the US-Iran conflict and the duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade [7]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the evening of the 4th, Bahrain Aluminium announced that a sudden force majeure event would affect the fulfillment of its supply contracts. This news stimulated LME aluminum to rise sharply to $3418 per ton, a new high since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, driving up domestic aluminum prices. On the 5th, the main contract of SHFE aluminum 2604 reached a maximum of 25,520 yuan per ton, with a gain of over 4%. In the late session, Iran stated that it had not blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and funds reduced positions, causing the price to fall back to 24,815 yuan per ton, with the gain narrowing to 1.31%. The total open interest increased by 15,000 lots to 703,500 lots [7]. - The recent rise is mainly due to overseas supply disruptions, with LME aluminum consistently stronger than SHFE aluminum. The theoretical loss of spot imports at the closing has expanded to over -3,270 yuan per ton. Alumina prices are fluctuating narrowly around 2,800 yuan, and the oversupply situation has not been reversed. If Middle - Eastern alumina imports are blocked, it may be redirected to the domestic market, putting pressure on domestic spot prices [7]. - Bahrain Aluminium produced 1.622 million tons of aluminum in 2025 and is currently maintaining production. However, due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, aluminum ingots cannot be delivered normally. The demand side is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season, with domestic and overseas inventory trends diverging. Domestic inventory has rapidly increased to 1.25 million tons, while LME inventory has dropped to 461,000 tons, highlighting the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [7]. 4.2 Industry News - Rio Tinto Group will reduce the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% starting from October 2026 to extend the plant's operation life to 2035 and explore further life - extension and modernization plans. This decision will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs at the refinery. Currently, the refinery has about 725 employees and an annual alumina production of about 3 million tons [9][10]. - National Aluminium Company (Nalco) of India plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support its integrated aluminum business expansion. The company has awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increased mining capacity, Nalco is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina plant, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10].