建信期货集运指数日报-20260306

1. Report Information - Report Name: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: March 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - After the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for shipping. Short - term tariff issues may not trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic export rush is limited. The运力 supply in March and April remains at a high level in the same period of history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European routes, the Red Sea resumption plan is affected by the escalating Middle East situation, which can continue to digest the运力 pressure. However, it is difficult to change the fundamental pattern of oversupply of European routes. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may lead to a phased strengthening of the index but is also prone to significant corrections. Pay attention to the convergence of the spot and futures prices around the delivery period in the second half of March, and look for opportunities to short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 on rallies [8] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market situation: In the afternoon, Iran officially stated that it did not block the Strait of Hormuz, and container shipping futures for European routes first soared and then dived. From the supply - demand fundamentals, it is still the off - season after the Spring Festival. The short - term tariff issue is unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the photovoltaic export rush demand is limited. The运力 supply in March and April is at a high level in the same period of history. Although the Strait of Hormuz blockade does not affect European routes, the Red Sea resumption plan is slowed down by the escalating Middle East situation, which can digest the运力 pressure. The current off - season price increase may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. Pay attention to the actual cargo - booking situation later [8] - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the convergence of the spot and futures prices around the delivery period in the second half of March. Look for opportunities to short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 on rallies [8] 4.2 Industry News - Overall market: After the Spring Festival, the Chinese export container shipping market is generally stable. The freight rates of ocean routes are rising, driving the comprehensive index up. On February 27, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1333.11 points, a 6.5% increase from the previous period [9] - European route: The eurozone's February composite PMI rose to 51.9, and the manufacturing PMI jumped from 49.5 to 50.8, reaching a 44 - month high. The European economy shows a good recovery momentum. The transportation demand remains stable, and the spot - market booking price has increased. On February 27, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in Europe was $1420/TEU, a 4.3% increase from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean route: The market situation is in sync with the European route, and the market freight rate has increased. On February 27, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the Mediterranean was $2305/TEU, a 5.9% increase from the previous period [10] - North American route: The US February composite PMI preliminary value dropped to 52.3, and the preliminary values of both the manufacturing and service PMIs declined slightly, showing a slowdown in the expansion speed. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's large - scale tariff measures were unconstitutional, bringing uncertainty to global trade. The transportation market is relatively stable, and the spot - market booking price has continued to rise. On February 27, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $1857/FEU and $2691/FEU respectively, with increases of 3.9% and 6.6% from the previous period [10] - Persian Gulf route: Due to the escalating geopolitical tensions and the upcoming "Ramadan", the spot - market freight rate has increased significantly. On February 27, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the Persian Gulf was $1327/TEU, a 35.4% increase from the previous period [10] - Geopolitical events: Trump said that a nuclear - armed Iran is unacceptable to the US, and the US military operations in Iran may last 4 - 5 weeks. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary said it would not negotiate with the US. An Iranian official said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed. Goldman Sachs estimated that European natural gas prices may rise by 130% and oil prices may rise by $18 per barrel. Morgan Stanley analysts said that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, Middle Eastern oil - producing countries can only continue production for "at most 25 days" [10] - Tariff - related events: The US Supreme Court ruled that the US government's tariffs were illegal. The US Customs and Border Protection will stop collecting relevant tariffs from February 24. The European Parliament postponed the vote on the EU - US trade agreement. Trump warned countries trying to take advantage of the ruling [10] 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - On March 2, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1463.4, a 7.0% decrease from February 23; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1045.08, a 6.0% decrease from February 23 [12] 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures for European routes on March 5, including contract information such as EC2604 - EC2612, with details on previous settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests [6] 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report presents multiple shipping - related data charts, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping futures for European routes, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][17][19]