建信期货国债日报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The policy strength in the government work report on the day did not exceed expectations, but profit - taking orders and the rebound of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to decline slightly [8]. - In the fundamental aspect, the PMI in February was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened. Although the high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production, and overseas export demand was still strong, and the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" might boost the real - estate market in the "Golden March" season, the first - quarter economy might continue to perform well, which would dampen the market's loose expectations. The visit of Trump at the end of March might push up market risk appetite and suppress the bond market. However, the unclear situation between the US and Iran in the short term was expected to support the demand for hedging, and the policy strength and government bond supply during the Two Sessions were lower than expected, so the adjustment space of treasury bond futures should be limited. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data from January to February [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - 当日行情: The policy strength in the government work report did not exceed expectations, and profit - taking orders and the A - share rebound suppressed the bond market, leading to a slight decline in treasury bond futures [8]. - 利率现券: The yields of major - term interest - rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market fluctuated within a narrow range. The change in the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond was within 1bp. By 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250022 was reported at 1.785%, down 0.2bp [9]. - 资金市场: At the beginning of the month, the inter - bank capital market was loose. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market on that day was 29.75 billion yuan. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated around 1.27%, the 7 - day capital interest rate fluctuated around 1.42%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated around 1.56 - 1.58% [10]. - 结论: The first - quarter economy might continue to perform well, which would dampen the market's loose expectations. The visit of Trump at the end of March might push up market risk appetite and suppress the bond market. However, the unclear situation between the US and Iran in the short term was expected to support the demand for hedging, and the policy strength and government bond supply during the Two Sessions were lower than expected, so the adjustment space of treasury bond futures should be limited. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data from January to February [11][12]. 3.2行业要闻 - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened in Beijing. The government work report put forward this year's main expected development goals, including an economic growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a target of around 5.5% for the urban surveyed unemployment rate, over 12 million new urban jobs, a consumer price increase of around 2%, and other goals. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposed 20 main indicators in 6 aspects and 109 major projects [13][14]. - The government work report proposed to control the increment, reduce inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions, explore multiple channels to revitalize the stock of commercial housing, and encourage the acquisition of stock commercial housing for affordable housing. It also proposed to deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system and further play the role of the "guaranteed delivery" white - list system to prevent debt default risks [14]. 3.3数据概览 - 国债期货行情: The report provided trading data of treasury bond futures on March 5, including information such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6]. - 货币市场: Although not detailed in the text, it mentioned data sources related to the money market, such as SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, bank - pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and inter - bank deposit - pledged repurchase interest rate changes [32][33]. - 衍生品市场: It mentioned Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) [37].