建信期货棉花日报-20260306

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: March 6, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of shock adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 16,583 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market demand is gradually released, and the orders are gradually issued. The overall trading in the cotton grey fabric market remains stable, and the manufacturers' shipments have accelerated [7]. - Macroeconomically, the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy boosts the performance of the commodity market. Globally, the 2026/27 cotton production is expected to decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, and the ending inventory is expected to decline by 1% to 16.6 million tons. Domestically, the supply side changes little, and the new - cotton sales are in the second half. The commercial inventory has turned into a downward trend. The short - term shock adjustment has an unchanged upward trend [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton is in shock adjustment. The 328 - grade cotton price index rises, and the orders of combed high - count yarns and semi - combed varieties are good. The cotton grey fabric market is stable, and the shipments are accelerating [7]. - Macroeconomic policies boost the commodity market. Globally, cotton production and ending inventory are expected to decline. Domestically, the supply side is stable, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and the short - term trend is upward [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The ICAC predicts that the global cotton consumption in 2026/27 will remain stable at 25 million tons, production will decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, and ending inventory will decline by 1% to 16.6 million tons. Pakistan's cotton production in 2025/26 is 5.607 million bales, an increase of 1.5% from last year, but 45% less than the official target [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, and various spread data, as well as cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and other data [17][18][20]