大越期货原油早报-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The war has further escalated, with the US and Israeli warplanes striking multiple locations in Iran, and several cities in the Gulf being bombed. If transportation cannot be redirected, Kuwait's current reserves can last about 18 days and the UAE's for 22 days. China is in consultations with Iran to ensure the safe passage of Iranian crude oil and Qatari LNG vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. - The US has issued a 30 - day temporary exemption to allow the sale of Russian oil stranded at sea to India to ease pressure on the global oil market. - Overnight, a senior White House official said the US Treasury may announce measures to address soaring energy prices as early as Thursday, possibly intervening in the crude oil futures market. Coupled with allowing some countries to use the stranded Russian crude oil at sea, oil prices have adjusted to some extent, and the internal - external premium has slightly declined. However, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz still does not encourage ship passage, and multiple countries are coordinating. Subsequently, oil prices may face significant fluctuations with news changes. - The SC2604 contract is expected to trade in the range of 655 - 685. Long - term investors should wait for opportunities to short at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The war situation is escalating, with potential impacts on oil supply. Kuwait and the UAE have limited reserve days. China is involved in ensuring shipping safety, and the US has taken measures to ease the market. Overall, the situation is neutral [3]. - Basis: On March 5, Oman crude oil's spot price was $95.30 per barrel, and Qatar Marine crude oil's was $87.94 per barrel. The basis was 40.93 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 27 increased by 5.647 million barrels (expected increase: 2.2 million barrels), EIA inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels (expected increase: 2.305 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 1.564 million barrels (previous increase: 0.881 million barrels). As of March 5, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 2.557 million barrels, showing a bearish trend [3]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - Main Position: As of February 24, the main positions in WTI and Brent crude oil futures were long, and the long positions increased, which is a bullish sign [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Saudi Aramco Pricing: Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for April sales to Asia by the largest margin since August 2022, to a premium of $2.50 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average. It also set different premiums for exports to Northwest Europe and the US [5]. - US Treasury Intervention: The US Treasury is evaluating direct action in the crude oil futures market to suppress the oil price surge caused by the Iran conflict. A senior White House official said the Treasury may announce a series of measures on March 5, which may include direct intervention in the oil futures market. Since the conflict with Iran broke out last Saturday, US crude oil futures prices have soared nearly 21% [5]. - Gulf Oil Tanker Incidents: A Bahamian - flagged oil tanker reported an explosion near the Iraqi port of Khor al - Zubair, and about 300 oil tankers are still stranded in the Strait of Hormuz due to the war [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Sanctions on Russia and the deterioration of the Middle East situation [6]. - Bearish Factors: The IEA's concern about crude oil oversupply and the alleviation of supply problems in some oil - producing countries [6]. - Market Driver: In the short term, continue to focus on geopolitical factors; in the long - term, there is a risk of oversupply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oils increased, with increases of 4.01, 6.35, 41.70, and 3.84 respectively, and the increase rates were 4.93%, 8.51%, 6.68%, and 4.68% respectively [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, and Dubai crude oil in the spot market increased, with the largest increase of 10.16% for Oman crude oil. The price of Shengli crude oil decreased by 1.02% [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventories both increased in the week ending February 27 [10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of February 24, the net long position was 172,712, an increase of 31,369 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of February 24, the net long position was 320,952, an increase of 57,766 [19].