《黑色》日报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Report's Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices showed little fluctuation, with rebar slightly stronger and hot-rolled coil weaker, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar converged. The spread between May and October contracts of rebar strengthened, while that of hot-rolled coil remained stable. Steel mill's hot metal production decreased due to environmental protection factors, inventory continued to decline seasonally, and apparent demand rebounded. Attention should be paid to the height of the rebound in apparent demand. The government work report at the Two Sessions basically met expectations, with little fluctuation in domestic demand expectations. The conflict between the US and Iran affected steel export routes, leading to a weak short - term export expectation. The support levels of rebar and hot-rolled coil are around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year increased by nearly 30 million tons. The arrival volume decreased. The hot metal production decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory pressure at ports was prominent. The supply pressure will still suppress ore prices, and the concerns about finished product exports may cause disturbances. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 730 - 770 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a volatile trend. The mainstream steel mills initiated the first - round price cut on March 4, which is expected to take effect on March 6, and port prices were weakly stable. Coking profit recovered to near the break - even point after the price increase. During the Two Sessions, steel mill production limits led to a decrease in hot metal production, weakening the restocking demand. The overall inventory increased slightly, and the coke supply and demand were basically balanced in the short term. Coking coal futures also showed a volatile trend. The spot auction price in Shanxi was weakly running, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuated with the futures. After the Spring Festival, coal mines gradually resumed production, and the daily coal output increased. Steel mills limited production during the Two Sessions, and the mainstream steel mills cut the coke price. The overall inventory decreased seasonally, but the upstream inventory increase was bearish. It is recommended to view the market with a volatile perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 for coke and 1050 - 1200 for coking coal [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon futures contract fluctuated at a high level. After the Spring Festival, ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, and the absolute value was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand for ferrosilicon increased marginally after the festival. The ferromanganese futures contract continued to rise. The supply of ferromanganese increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the absolute value was also at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The hot metal production decreased significantly due to production limits during the Two Sessions, and the finished product inventory was low. The terminal demand for exports was weakened by the US - Iran conflict. The overall demand will continue to improve marginally after the festival. It is expected that the price fluctuations of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese will intensify. For ferrosilicon, the price may face pressure when rebounding to the FOB export cost. For ferromanganese, short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads can be tried, and attention should be paid to the immediate cost pressure level in Guizhou [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions had different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged, while hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the plate billet price remained unchanged. Profits in different regions and for different products showed different changes, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 44 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 0.5 to 797.2, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production increased by 8.2 to 173.3, an increase of 5.0%, with the electric furnace production increasing significantly by 9.1 to 11.7, an increase of 349.6%. Hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.5 to 301.1, a decrease of 2.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 105.9 to 1952.0, an increase of 5.7%. Rebar inventory increased by 75.1 to 875.7, an increase of 9.4%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 19.5 to 471.7, an increase of 4.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.2 to 5.3, an increase of 3.8%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 126.7 to 691.4, an increase of 22.4%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 64.7 to 98.2, an increase of 192.8%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 13.2 to 281.6, an increase of 4.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increasing by 5.5 to 856.6, an increase of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed, for example, the 05 - contract basis of Carajás fines decreased by 1.5 to 97.6, a decrease of 1.6% [4]. Production and Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9, a decrease of 0.3%. The global shipment volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7, an increase of 0.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3, an increase of 1.2%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 162.41 to 6072.2, a decrease of 2.6% [4]. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1, a decrease of 15.1%. The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96, an increase of 0.9% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coke varieties had different changes. For example, the price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of coke 05 contract increased by 5 to 1677, an increase of 0.3% [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coking coal varieties also had different changes. For example, the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal 05 contract increased by 9 to 1106, an increase of 0.8% [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production was 883. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4 to 63.9, a decrease of 0.5%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.0, a decrease of 0.2%. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines' raw coal decreased by 144.1 to 696.4, a decrease of 17.1%, and the clean coal production decreased by 74.4 to 349.6, a decrease of 17.5% [7]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4%. The demand for coke was affected by the decrease in hot metal production [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.6 to 984.7, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.5 to 110.3, an increase of 2.3%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.9 to 671.3, a decrease of 0.6%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines' clean coal decreased by 3.1 to 121.0, a decrease of 2.5%, and the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 48.9 to 949.5, a decrease of 4.9% [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot and Futures - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5828.0, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 28 to 6092.0 [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 9.4 to 6063.2, and the production profit decreased by 9.3 to - 213.2. The production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased by 26.6 to 6312.4 [8]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.2 to 9.7, a decrease of 2.1%. The weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.1 to 19.6, a decrease of 0.8% [8]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8, with an increase of 1.7%. The weekly ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 11.1, an increase of 0.9%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4% [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.4 to 6.6, a decrease of 5.9%. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 38.7, a decrease of 2.8% [8].