广发期货《金融》日报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given documents. 2. Core Views 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads, including F, H, IC, and IM. It also shows the cross - period spreads and cross - variety ratios [1]. 2.2 Bond Futures - The report provides the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, along with their latest values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold: After a callback, it seeks support at the 20 - day moving average. Short - term trends are volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Long positions can take profits at high prices or sell out - of - the - money call options for protection. - Silver: The long - term upward logic of supply inventory shortage and strong investment demand remains valid, but short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value. - Platinum and Palladium: Supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply pattern, but dragged down by gold and silver, they maintain a weak shock in the short term. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. 2.4 Container Shipping - The Middle East conflict has affected shipping routes. MSK has opened the freight rate for March at $2200, corresponding to around 1700 points on the disk. After a continuous sharp rise, the futures price has a premium over the current freight rate. It is expected to have larger fluctuations and operate in a shock. Investors should participate rationally and hold positive spreads [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures - Futures - Spot Spreads: F: - 18.69, up 52.80% from the previous day, 25.40% in the 1 - year percentile and 47.10% in the all - time percentile; H: - 1.45, up 0.56, 56.50% in the 1 - year percentile and 47.10% in the all - time percentile; IC: - 53.57, down 24.03, 48.30% in the 1 - year percentile and 16.40% in the all - time percentile; IM: - 41.12, down 10.80, 25.00% in the 1 - year percentile and 39.10% in the all - time percentile [1]. - Cross - Period Spreads: For example, the next - month - to - current - month spread of F is - 14.00, down 3.40, 42.20% in the 1 - year percentile and 31.10% in the all - time percentile [1]. - Cross - Variety Ratios: For example, IC/IF is 1.7835, down 0.0069, 94.60% in the 1 - year percentile and 99.00% in the all - time percentile [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures - Basis: TS: 1.4270, down 0.0291, 18.60% since listing; TF: 1.3913, up 0.0399, 34.00% since listing; T: 1.4327, up 0.0624, 48.90% since listing; TL: 1.3325, up 0.5289, 39.80% since listing [2]. - Cross - Period Spreads: For example, the current - season - to - next - season spread of TF is 0.0050, up 0.0250, 23.20% since listing [2]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: For example, TS - TF is - 3.6130, up 0.0140, 6.60% since listing [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Domestic Futures Closing Prices: AU2604: 1152.00 yuan/g, down 1.06, - 0.09%; AG2604: 21639 yuan/10g, down 215, - 0.98%; PT2606: 563.05, up 0.45, 0.08%; PD2606: 428.00 yuan/g, down 5.80, - 1.34% [3]. - Foreign Futures Closing Prices: COMEX gold: 5093.30, down 58.30, - 1.13%; COMEX silver: 82.52, down 1.25, - 1.49%; NYMEX platinum: 2128.20, down 37.60, - 1.74%; NYMEX palladium: 1650.00, down 48.50, - 2.86% [3]. - Spot Prices: London gold: 5084.69, down 35.85, - 0.70%; London silver: 82.26, down 1.28, - 1.54%; Spot platinum: 2120.10, down 46.90, - 2.16%; Spot palladium: 1629.50, down 38.00, - 2.28% [3]. - Differences: Gold TD - Shanghai gold: - 3.44, down 3.33, 46.10%; Silver TD - Shanghai silver: - 571, down 278, 60.60% [3]. - Price Ratios: COMEX gold/silver: 61.72, up 0.22, 0.36%; SHFE gold/silver: 53.24, up 0.48, 0.90% [3]. - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: 10 - year US Treasury yield: 4.13, up 0.04, 1.0%; 2 - year US Treasury yield: 3.57, up 0.03, 0.8%; 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield: 1.82, up 0.02, 1.1%; US dollar index: 99.04, up 0.25, 0.25%; Offshore RMB exchange rate: 6.9184, up 0.0238, 0.35% [3]. - Inventory and Positions: SHFE gold inventory: 105033, unchanged, 0.00%; SHFE silver inventory: 272721 kg, down 22102, - 7.50%; COMEX gold inventory: 33100294, up 29808, 0.18%; COMEX silver inventory: 351341925, down 877946, - 0.25% [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping - Spot Quotes: MAERSK: $2240/FEU, up 30, 1.36%; CMA: $4193/FEU, unchanged, 0.00%; MSC: $2740/FEU, up 100, 3.79%; ONE: $2735/FEU, unchanged, 0.00%; OOCL: $4030/FEU, unchanged, 0.00% [5]. - Container Shipping Indexes: SCFIS (European route): 1463.40, down 110.1, - 7.00%; SCFIS (US West route): 1045.08, down 66.9, - 6.02%; SCFI composite index: 1333.11, up 81.6, 6.52% [5]. - Futures Prices and Basis: EC2604 (main contract): 1768.0, down 141.5, - 7.41%; Basis (main contract): - 304.6, up 141.5, - 31.72% [5]. - Fundamental Data: Global container shipping capacity supply: 3388.34 ATEU, unchanged, 0.00%; Port punctuality rate (Shanghai): 38.18, down 3.63, - 8.68%; Port berthing situation (Shanghai): 351.00, down 3.00, - 0.85% [5]. - Overseas Economy: Eurozone composite PMI: 51.90, up 0.60, 1.17%; EU consumer confidence index: - 11.70, unchanged, 0.00%; US manufacturing PMI index: 52.40, down 0.20, - 0.38% [5].