《农产品》日报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were boosted by rising crude oil futures, breaking through the 4,200 ringgit resistance and expected to oscillate between 4,200 - 4,300 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures also maintained a strong trend, with short - term expectations of oscillating between 9,000 - 9,200 yuan [1]. - CBOT soybean oil has risen for two and a half months and may experience a stagflation correction. In China, the end of pre - school procurement and the traditional off - season have dragged down the market, and the basis may decline if soybean oil prices continue to rise [1]. - Rapeseed oil was driven up by the rebound of US crude oil and the rise of BMD palm oil but then adjusted due to news. The spot basis weakened due to low market purchasing意愿 [1]. 2. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to the conflict in the Middle East and a stronger US dollar. In China, the supply is supported by the expected reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the decline in commercial inventory. However, the lack of new orders from spinning mills and large internal - external price differences limit the upward space. In the long - term, the overall trend is expected to be stronger [2]. 3. Sugar - Globally, the bearish factors have been fully priced in. Czarnikow expects a 6.7 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, with production in India reduced. The raw sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly. In China, the short - term bearish factors have been fully priced in, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. 4. Red Dates - After the Spring Festival, the red date market consumption was flat. Futures are expected to oscillate in a low - valuation range, with limited upward space due to hedging and inventory pressure [4]. 5. Apples - The apple market is active, with good - quality apples in short supply. The inventory in cold storage has decreased, and the short - term futures price is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and weather changes [6]. 6. Corn - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast is tight, the North Port has low inventory, and the North China market has a small increase in supply. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory, while feed enterprises mainly have rigid demand. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [8]. 7. Meal - US soybeans are oscillating at a high level. In China, the spot market is loose, and the basis of soybean meal is falling. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. 8. Pigs - After the Spring Festival, the supply of pigs has recovered, and the demand is in the off - season. The market is under pressure, and the futures price is grinding at the bottom. The rise depends on the support of secondary fattening [15]. 9. Eggs - The supply of eggs is slowly decreasing, but there is inventory to be digested. The demand is in the off - season. The egg price is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - Price Changes: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 8,640 yuan, with a 0.12% increase. The futures price of Y2605 remained unchanged at 8,370 yuan, and the basis increased by 10 yuan to 270 yuan, a 3.85% increase [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 12 yuan to 8,978 yuan, a 0.13% decrease. The futures price of P2605 increased by 68 yuan to 9,070 yuan, a 0.76% increase. The basis decreased by 80 yuan to - 92 yuan, a 666.67% decrease [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 14 yuan to 9,968 yuan, a 0.14% decrease. The futures price of OIROS increased by 3 yuan to 9,489 yuan, a 0.03% increase. The basis decreased by 17 yuan to 479 yuan, a 3.43% decrease [1]. - Spread Changes: - Soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 2 yuan to 58 yuan, a 6.67% decrease. - Palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) remained unchanged at - 22 yuan. - Rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 11 yuan to 74 yuan, a 12.94% decrease [1]. 2. Cotton - Futures Market: - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 45 yuan to 15,250 yuan, a 0.30% increase. The price of cotton 2609 increased by 65 yuan to 15,320 yuan, a 0.43% increase. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 20 yuan to - 70 yuan, a 40.00% decrease [2]. - Spot Market: - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 2 yuan to 16,396 yuan, a 0.01% increase. The CC Index: 3128B increased by 12 yuan to 16,583 yuan, a 0.07% increase [2]. - Industry Situation: - Commercial inventory decreased by 578.87 million tons to 0, a 100.0% decrease. Industrial inventory increased by 3.3 million tons to 89.4 million tons, a 3.8% increase. Import volume increased by 5.89 million tons to 17.79 million tons, a 49.5% increase [2]. 3. Sugar - Futures Market: - The price of sugar 2605 increased by 22 yuan to 5,330 yuan, a 0.41% increase. The price of sugar 2609 increased by 25 yuan to 5,346 yuan, a 0.47% increase. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 0.24 cents to 13.71 cents per pound, a 1.72% decrease [3]. - Spot Market: - The price in Nanning increased by 10 yuan to 5,380 yuan, a 0.19% increase. The price in Kunming remained unchanged at 5,215 yuan. The Nanning basis decreased by 12 yuan to 50 yuan, a 19.35% decrease. The Kunming basis decreased by 22 yuan to - 115 yuan, a 23.66% decrease [3]. - Industry Situation: - National sugar production decreased by 60.28 million tons to 689 million tons, an 8.05% decrease. National sugar sales decreased by 103.5 million tons to 270 million tons, a 27.71% decrease [3]. 4. Red Dates - Futures Market: - The price of red dates 2605 increased by 170 yuan to 8,980 yuan, a 1.93% increase. The price of red dates 2607 increased by 162 yuan to 9,135 yuan, a 1.84% increase. The price of red dates 2609 increased by 155 yuan to 9,290 yuan, a 1.70% increase [4]. - Spot Market: - The price of Cangzhou's top - grade red dates remained unchanged at 9,190 yuan. The price of first - grade red dates remained unchanged at 7,900 yuan. The price of second - grade red dates remained unchanged at 6,900 yuan [4]. 5. Apples - Futures Market: - The price of apple 2605 increased by 304 yuan to 10,753 yuan, a 2.91% increase. The price of apple 2610 decreased by 58 yuan to 8,690 yuan, a 0.66% decrease. The 5 - 10 spread increased by 362 yuan to 2,063 yuan, a 21.28% increase [6]. - Spot Market: - The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market decreased by 2 vehicles to 20 vehicles, a 9.09% decrease. The arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market decreased by 1 vehicle to 11 vehicles, an 8.33% decrease. The arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market decreased by 1 vehicle to 14 vehicles, a 6.67% decrease [6]. - Inventory: - The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 25.39 million tons to 527.53 million tons, a 4.59% decrease [6]. 6. Corn - Corn: - The price of corn 2605 increased by 5 yuan to 2,384 yuan, a 0.21% increase. The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port increased by 5 yuan to 2,405 yuan, a 0.21% increase. The basis remained unchanged at 21 yuan [8]. - Corn Starch: - The price of corn starch 2605 increased by 4 yuan to 2,696 yuan, a 0.15% increase. The average price of corn starch increased by 18 yuan to 2,841 yuan, a 0.64% increase [8]. 7. Meal - Soybean Meal: - The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 3,040 yuan, a 0.65% decrease. The futures price of M2605 increased by 14 yuan to 2,843 yuan, a 0.49% increase. The basis decreased by 34 yuan to 197 yuan, a 14.72% decrease [11]. - Rapeseed Meal: - The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2,510 yuan, a 0.80% increase. The futures price of RM2605 increased by 15 yuan to 2,318 yuan, a 0.65% increase. The basis increased by 5 yuan to 192 yuan, a 2.67% increase [11]. 8. Pigs - Futures Market: - The price of pig 2605 increased by 10 yuan to 11,140 yuan, a 0.09% increase. The price of pig 2603 increased by 75 yuan to 10,180 yuan, a 0.74% increase. The 3 - 5 spread increased by 65 yuan to - 960 yuan, a 6.34% increase [15]. - Spot Market: - The price in Henan decreased by 250 yuan to 10,500 yuan. The price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 10,700 yuan. The price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan [15]. 9. Eggs - Futures Market: - The price of egg 04 contract increased by 37 yuan to 3,246 yuan per 500 kg, a 1.15% increase. The price of egg 05 contract increased by 31 yuan to 3,396 yuan per 500 kg, a 0.92% increase [17]. - Spot Market: - The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.02 yuan to 2.94 yuan per jin, a 0.73% decrease. The basis decreased by 209 yuan to - 458 yuan per 500 kg, an 83.76% decrease [17]. - Industry Situation: - The egg - chick price increased by 0.10 yuan to 3.30 yuan per chick, a 3.12% increase. The culled - hen price remained unchanged at 4.44 yuan per jin. The egg - feed ratio decreased by 0.26 to 2.63, a 9.00% decrease [17].