广发期货日报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term: Due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, market sentiment fluctuates greatly, causing wide - range fluctuations in tin prices. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - drivers. - Medium - to long - term: The bullish logic for tin prices still exists. After sentiment stabilizes, investors can enter the market at an appropriate time [1][2]. Aluminum - Short - term: The macro situation is the key variable this week. It is recommended to trade cautiously to prevent short - term price retracements caused by profit - taking. The expected range for the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton. - Medium - to long - term: The global supply - demand balance pattern will be maintained, and the long - term bullish logic for aluminum prices remains unchanged [5]. Nickel - The recent overseas macro uncertainty increases. The raw material end has strong support, but weak demand and high inventory are the main constraints. The bottom support is strong, but the upward driving force is limited. It is expected that the nickel price will maintain range - bound fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 134,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton [6]. Stainless Steel - Overseas macro risks have increased uncertainty, and domestic policy expectations from the meeting window have a certain boosting effect. The supply - demand fundamentals are slowly recovering, and costs and demand are in a continuous game. In the short term, it is expected to be mainly in a state of shock adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainty and magnify macro risks. The lithium carbonate price is over - valued, and funds are flowing more towards the oil - chemical and precious metal sectors. The single - sided driving force for new energy is weak. In the short term, it is expected to have wide - range shock adjustments, with the main contract reference range of 150,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to policy guidance during the meeting period [9]. Aluminum Alloy - In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate within a range in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton. The key turning point after the festival lies in the matching degree between the downstream resumption of work and order recovery and the supply increase speed, as well as the improvement of scrap aluminum circulation. If there is a phased increase in terminal orders, the ADC12 price still has room to rise [10]. Copper - Short - term: The copper price is expected to maintain a high level in March, with a phased mismatch between supply and demand, continuous inventory accumulation, and limited upward driving force for prices. - Medium - to long - term: The copper fundamentals are still good. The supply side is constrained by capital expenditure, and the AI expectation brings incremental demand for power grid upgrading and transformation. The copper price is still optimistic in the long run. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream resumption of work rhythm and overseas macro - drivers. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support around 100,000 yuan/ton [11]. Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are generally good. If the downstream resumption of work in the peak season fails to meet expectations, the domestic inventory pressure may suppress the zinc price performance in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in zinc ore TC and demand, with the main contract focusing on the support around 23,800 yuan/ton [13]. Industrial Silicon - In March, both supply and demand are expected to be strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of production and sales after the Lantern Festival. Although there is new production capacity to be put into operation, the demand - side capacity release is greater than the supply - side. The organic silicon industry is expected to achieve positive supply - demand repair. The futures price has support at the cost level. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on export demand. It is recommended to hold long positions around 8,200 yuan/ton with caution and pay attention to position reduction or liquidation [15]. Polysilicon - Although the current supply pressure is large, the demand is expected to recover in March. However, the annual demand remains weak. If there is no further regulation on the supply side, attention should be paid to the price decline pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now. If you want to participate, you can try long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and stop - loss setting [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.40% to 406,850 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 66.67% to 250 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium was 52.31% [1]. - Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss: The import loss was 8,650.12 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.90 [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 2603 - 2604 spread increased by 75.16% to - 380 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17,637 tons, and the SMM refined tin output in February was 11,490 tons, a decrease of 23.91% [1]. - Inventory Changes: The SHEF inventory increased by 11.25% to 12,253 tons, and the social inventory increased by 15.26% to 13,109 tons [2]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 2.99% to 25,120 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 140 yuan/ton [5]. - Ratio and Profit and Loss: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum was - 3,003 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.37 [5]. - Monthly Spread: The AL 2603 - 2604 spread was - 70 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental Data: The alumina output in February was 660.02 million tons, a decrease of 10.63%; the domestic electrolytic aluminum output in February was 346 million tons, a decrease of 8.91% [5]. - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased by 0.43% to 459,000 tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased to 1.256 million tons [5]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.14% to 140,350 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 3.62% to 6,650 yuan/ton [6]. - Cost of Electrowinning Nickel: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.69% to 113,324 yuan/ton [6]. - New Energy Material Prices: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.36% to 32,050 yuan/ton [6]. - Monthly Spread: The 2603 - 2604 spread was - 920 yuan/ton [6]. - Supply, Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel output decreased by 7.59% to 32,550 tons, and the refined nickel import volume increased by 84.63% to 23,394 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 3.43% to 60,791 tons [6]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,450 yuan/ton, and the basis was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.75% [7]. - Raw Material Prices: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remained unchanged at 14 US dollars/wet ton [7]. - Monthly Spread: The 2603 - 2604 spread was - 315 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output decreased by 27.89% to 66,633 tons, and the stainless steel net export volume increased by 15.96% to 340,000 tons [7]. - Inventory: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.24% to 538,600 tons [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.30% to 156,000 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 85.11% to 140 yuan/ton [9]. - Monthly Spread: The 2603 - 2605 spread was - 2,840 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamental Data: The lithium carbonate output in February was 83,090 tons, a decrease of 15.13%, and the demand was 111,503 tons, a decrease of 10.57% [9]. - Inventory: The total lithium carbonate inventory in February decreased by 4.76% to 28,353 tons [9]. Aluminum Alloy - Price: The price of cast aluminum alloy increased by 1.23% to 23,420 yuan/ton [10]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side has a longer furnace - shutdown period this year, and the resumption of work is slow. The demand side is relatively weak, but the demand is expected to improve in March [10]. - Inventory: The post - festival social inventory shows a slight decline [10]. Copper - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.02% to 101,475 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - Monthly Spread: The 2603 - 2604 spread was - 210 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data: The electrolytic copper output in February was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13%, and the electrolytic copper import volume in December was 260,200 tons, a decrease of 4.02% [11]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased by 8.56% to 577,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 43.69% to 391,500 tons [11]. Zinc - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.98% to 24,710 yuan/ton, and the premium was - 105 yuan/ton [13]. - Ratio and Profit and Loss: The import loss was - 2,681 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.40 [13]. - Monthly Spread: The 2603 - 2604 spread was - 75 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamental Data: The refined zinc output in February was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 9.99%, and the refined zinc import volume in December was 8,800 tons, a decrease of 51.94% [13]. - Inventory: The domestic zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 16.55% to 256,300 tons [13]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 27.50% to 255 yuan/ton [15]. - Monthly Spread: The main contract price decreased by 0.62% to 8,795 yuan/ton [15]. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon output was 375,500 tons, a decrease of 5.44%, and the national industrial silicon starting rate was 48.33%, a decrease of 25.17% [15]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 1.25% to 553,000 tons [15]. Polysilicon - Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re - feeding material decreased by 1.01% to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the main contract price increased by 0.19% to 42,280 yuan/ton [16]. - Monthly Spread: The near - month - to - first - continuous spread was - 155 yuan/ton [16]. - Fundamental Data: The polysilicon output was 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1.46%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.75 GW, an increase of 8.20% [16]. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 333,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.90% to 27.29 GW [16].