集运早报-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short-term geopolitical sentiment is expected to dominate the 04 contract's performance, with significant external capital impacts. Next week (week 12) is the actual booking window, and the supply-demand situation is weak. It is recommended to observe cargo collection and look for short-selling opportunities on the right side due to high volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - Contract Price and Change: EC2604 closed at 1,768.0 with a -7.41% change; EC2605 at 1,805.0 with -14.48%; EC2606 at 1,950.1 with -12.51%; EC2607 at 2,066.4 with -12.07%; EC2608 at 2,010.0 with -10.31%; EC2609 at 1,498.3 with -11.01%; EC2610 at 1,394.9 with -725%; EC2612 at 1,677.3 with -9.96% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: EC2604 had a trading volume of 153,840 and an open interest of 36,679 with a change of -1,939; EC2605 had 6,155 and 1,782 with -12; EC2606 had 30,528 and 20,170 with -1,467; EC2607 had 1,091 and 771 with 72; EC2608 had 4,342 and 2,964 with -113; EC2609 had 768 and 477 with -102; EC2610 had 12,355 and 11,408 with -611; EC2612 had 430 and 354 with -109 [2]. - Month Spread: The spread of EC2604 - 2606 was -182.1 with a daily increase of 137.3 and a weekly increase of 223.1; EC2604 - 2605 was -37 with 164.1 and -180.7; EC2606 - 2610 was 555.2 with -169.7 and 86.6 [2]. Spot Market Information - Spot Index: The spot index of the European route on March 2, 2026, was 1,463.40 points, down -7.00% from the previous period and -2.10% from the period before that. The SCHI was 1,420 dollars/TEU on February 27, 2026 [2]. - Spot Freight Rates: In early March, MSC led a price increase to $3,000, and most other shipping companies followed suit to $3,000 - 3,100. In week 10, the average was $2,200, about 1,560 points. In week 11, MSK opened at $1,850. In late March, multiple shipping companies announced price increases. In week 12, MSK opened at $2,250, a $400 increase from the previous week [4]. News - On March 5, major global seafarers' unions declared the Middle - East Gulf region, including the Strait of Hormuz, a war - affected area, and seafarers have the right to refuse to go there. Also on March 5, Iranian officials made statements about not asking for a cease - fire, being ready to respond to a US ground invasion, potentially giving up the nuclear program under certain conditions, and keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed during the war [5].