镍日报-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On March 5, Shanghai nickel showed a narrow and weak performance. The main contract 2605 closed at 136,270 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decline from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1089 yuan/nickel point, and the price of nickel sulfate increased by 115 to 32,050 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association's statement that the Indonesian government may increase the 2026 quota by up to 30% in July has eased market concerns about the nickel ore supply gap this year. However, considering the tightening of nickel ore supply, there is still some support for nickel prices. In the short term, the price increase has weakened due to the alleviation of market sentiment. The situation of the new quota needs to be observed in July. Overall, in the context of resource competition and tight supply, nickel prices are more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back before trying long positions [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On March 5, the main contract 2605 of Shanghai nickel closed at 136,270 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1089 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of nickel sulfate increased by 115 to 32,050 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association's statement about the potential quota increase in July has eased supply gap concerns, but nickel ore supply is still tight. In the short term, the price increase has loosened, and the new quota situation needs further observation. Overall, nickel prices are likely to rise, and it is advisable to wait for a pull - back to go long [8] 3.2行业要闻 - Vale's nickel production in 2025 reached 177,000 tons, the highest since 2022, a 10.69% increase from 2024. The fourth - quarter production was 46,200 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. The company expects 2026 production to be between 175,000 and 200,000 tons [9] - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. released 2025 preliminary production data and 2026 - 2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidance. Its 2025 copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised range, and gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit. Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the 2026 - 2027 copper and gold production guidance, kept the nickel production guidance unchanged, and raised the 2026 capital expenditure guidance. The Panama government's agreement to process Cobre Panamá inventory ore is a positive signal [10] - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be used until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on government evaluation and quota addition [10]