驱动逻辑反转，流动性收紧再度打压贵金属

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran initially drove up precious metal prices due to increased risk - aversion, but the situation reversed quickly. The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran led to energy transportation disruptions, inflation pressure, and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, causing a sharp correction in precious metal prices [1]. - In the new market paradigm, the role of traditional safe - haven assets has weakened during the Iran conflict. Due to factors such as de - globalization, de - dollarization, and AI algorithm trading, the flow of funds has changed, and the original driving logic has reversed. The prices of US Treasuries and precious metals are under pressure due to expectations of tight monetary policy [2][4]. - The market expects the US dollar cycle to rebound and the current gold bull market to peak, but gold still has value in asset allocation under the "de - dollarization" trend. The future performance of precious metals depends on the Middle East situation, US inflation data, and the Fed's stance [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - After the US - Iran conflict, precious metal prices first rose due to risk - aversion but then sharply corrected. On Wednesday morning, the main contracts of Shanghai silver and platinum futures fell by more than 5%, erasing the gains since late February, and the main contract of Shanghai gold fell by more than 3% before rebounding in the afternoon [1]. Driving Analysis - In the past, geopolitical conflicts would drive funds to safe - haven assets, but in this US - Iran conflict, traditional safe - haven assets did not perform as expected. In the new market paradigm, funds first flow to the currencies of net oil - exporting countries, and the currencies of net oil - importing countries are under pressure [2]. - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may lead to a global oil supply disruption and an energy crisis, increasing the possibility of the Fed delaying rate cuts or even raising rates again. Market concerns about a new Fed chairman's possible tendency to shrink the balance sheet also intensify liquidity tightness, suppressing the prices of US Treasuries and precious metals [2][4]. Impact on Precious Metals - The market expects the US dollar cycle to rebound and the gold bull market to peak, but gold shows some resilience due to demand from central bank purchases and ETF investments. The future performance of precious metals depends on the Middle East situation and the Fed's stance on inflation [5]. - For gold, short - term support at the 20 - day moving average should be monitored, and long positions can consider taking profits at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options for protection. For silver, with a continuous decline in exchange inventories and tight supply, but high price volatility, it may test the 60 - day moving average again, and short - selling at high prices above $95 or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. For platinum and palladium, which follow the fluctuations of gold and silver and have limited short - term upward momentum, selling out - of - the - money call options at high prices can be considered [5].