多晶硅周报：多晶硅偏弱震荡，关注需求恢复情况-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the Spring Festival, production and sales have not fully recovered. The demand recovery rhythm after the festival and the rush-to-export effect brought by export tax rebates will be the key variables affecting the short - term market trend. If downstream enterprises' production resumes and demand is released, the procurement demand for polysilicon is expected to pick up, inventory pressure will be relieved, and the futures market may stabilize and rebound. Otherwise, polysilicon prices will remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the 45,000 level [3] Summary by Directory 1. Spot and Futures Price Trends - Spot: After the Spring Festival, trading was still weak, and polysilicon spot quotes were lowered. The price of N - type re - feedstock decreased by 2.35% to 52 yuan/kg, while the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50 yuan/kg [12] - Futures: The futures contract prices trended weakly. On Friday, the futures price fell to around 455,000 yuan/ton and then rebounded, closing at 46,495 yuan/ton. The main contract price and the price differences between different contracts are presented in the report [7] 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In January 2026, the domestic polysilicon production decreased to about 10.08 - 10.2 million tons. In February, production will be further reduced to less than 8.5 million tons. In March, production is expected to increase due to more production days and the resumption of some enterprises [28] - Demand: In February, demand continued to decline. In January, the production of battery cells decreased by about 10% to 41.44GW, and the February production plan dropped to 36.7GW. The January production of components reached 35GW, and the February production plan was about 30GW. The weekly production of silicon wafers increased slightly by 1.3GW to 11.35GW, and the inventory rose by 1GW to 31.06GW. The domestic installed capacity in December 2025 was about 20GW, and the January installation was sluggish, but exports are expected to recover in the first quarter [43][48][52] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - The increase in polysilicon prices is beneficial for profit repair in the photovoltaic products, especially in polysilicon. However, due to the significant decline in downstream demand and no obvious signs of recovery in the first quarter, there is no expectation of continuous profit growth. Daquan Energy's 2025 revenue was 4.839 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 34.71%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was 1.129 billion yuan, a narrowing of over 50% year - on - year. The estimated production in the first quarter of 2026 is 35,000 - 40,000 tons, and the annual production is expected to be 140,000 - 170,000 tons [68] 4. Import and Export - In December 2025, the polysilicon import volume was 0.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77% and a year - on - year decrease of 43%. The export volume decreased to 0.16 million tons, changing from net export to net import, but the whole year remained a net exporter. The silicon wafer export volume in December 2025 was 0.97 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.4% and a year - on - year increase of 122.3%. The solar battery export volume in December was 1.37 billion pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 66.9% [70][79][83] 5. Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - After the Spring Festival, the weekly inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 34.4 million tons. The warehouse receipts increased by 890 lots to 9,480 lots, equivalent to 28,440 tons. The inventory decreased slightly but was still high compared to the same period [94]