股指期货周报-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, with the STAR 50 being the weakest, dropping over 4%. The four stock - index futures also fell, and small - and mid - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks [8][97]. - There were numerous domestic and overseas market news this week. The Middle East conflict continued to escalate, pushing up oil prices, reducing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI declined in February, while the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The government work report set a lower economic growth target for 2026 but showed a shift towards high - quality development and more active fiscal policies [97]. - As the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on re - inflation expectations is gradually digested by the market, the Two Sessions have become the current market focus. The support for high - tech manufacturing in the government work report boosted related sectors, and the positive fiscal policy strengthened the market's expectation of policy - supported economic growth [97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2603 | - 1.44 | 0.60 | 4646.0 | | | IH2603 | - 1.82 | 0.29 | 2990.0 | | | IC2603 | - 3.73 | 1.17 | 8322.6 | | | IM2603 | - 3.75 | 1.40 | 8211.8 | | Spot | CSI 300 | - 1.07 | 0.27 | 4660.44 | | | SSE 50 | - 1.54 | 0.14 | 2992.70 | | | CSI 500 | - 3.44 | 0.62 | 8360.33 | | | CSI 1000 | - 3.64 | 0.95 | 8248.86 | [11] 3.2 News Overview - On February 28th (local time), the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. US President Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry and navy, and prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that the goal was to overthrow the Iranian regime [14]. - On March 4th, China's National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the official manufacturing PMI in February was 49 (expected 49.7, previous 49.3), the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. - The government work report set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate at around 5.5%, and the goal of creating over 12 million new urban jobs. It also proposed to continue implementing more active fiscal policies (deficit rate around 4%, deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year; general public budget expenditure of 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year; issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds) and moderately loose monetary policies [15]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Major Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.22%, the STAR 50 fell 4.95%, the SME 100 fell 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.45% [19]. - Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 fell 0.70%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 4.55%, the Nikkei 225 fell 5.49%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 3.28% [20]. - Sector Performance: Most industry sectors declined, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector rising significantly and the media sector falling notably. - Sector Main - Force Fund Flow: Industry main - force funds generally showed net outflows, with significant net outflows in the electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors, and only a slight net inflow in the comprehensive sector [28]. - SHIBOR Short - Term Interest Rates: SHIBOR short - term interest rates declined, indicating a generally loose capital market [32]. - Other Data: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 12.586 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 43.713 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 14.38786 trillion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all fluctuated [35]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The external environment still restricts A - shares due to the escalating Middle East conflict, rising oil prices, and reduced Fed interest - rate cut expectations. - Domestically, the manufacturing showed a weak supply - demand situation in February, but the non - manufacturing was supported by strong consumer spending. The government work report indicated a shift towards high - quality economic development and more active fiscal policies. - As the market digests the impact of overseas conflicts and focuses on the domestic situation, the stable and improving fundamentals will support the market [97].