白糖市场周报-20260306

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.88%. Affected by external factors and with the current sugar price near the cost, the medium - to - long - term price center is expected to move up [5][20] - In February, Brazil's sugar exports increased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased slightly this week. In the domestic market, the estimated output of Yunnan sugar in the 2025/26 crushing season has been raised to about 2.7 million tons. The sugar production progress in Yunnan in February was faster than last year, but the monthly sugar sales volume was lower and the inventory was higher. In Guangxi, the sugar - mill closing progress is relatively slow, but after the Spring Festival, the price has rebounded and the transaction has improved significantly, and the sugar sales data in February is expected to be good [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.88% [5] - Market Outlook: In February, Brazil exported 2.22975 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The daily average export volume was 123,870 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%. As of the week of March 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, up from 41 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.4939 million tons, up from 1.4617 million tons the previous week. In the domestic market, the estimated output of Yunnan sugar in the 2025/26 crushing season has been raised to about 2.7 million tons. The sugar production progress in Yunnan in February was faster than last year, but the monthly sugar sales volume was lower and the inventory was higher. As of now, 3 sugar mills in Guangxi have closed in the 2025/26 crushing season, 44 fewer than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, the price has rebounded and the transaction has improved significantly, and the sugar sales data in February is expected to be good. Overall, affected by external factors and with the current sugar price near the cost, the medium - to - long - term price center is expected to move up [5] - Future Focus Factors: Domestic imports and demand [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Market: This week, the price of the US Sugar May contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 1.50%. As of February 24, 2026, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 246,123 lots, a decrease of 7,469 lots from the previous week. The long position was 183,446 lots, an increase of 11,465 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 429,569 lots, an increase of 3,996 lots from the previous week [12] - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.09 cents per pound, an increase of 0.1 cent per pound from last week [17] - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.88%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 114,672 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 14,986 lots. The price difference between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 13 yuan per ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 29 yuan per ton [20][27][32] - Spot Market: As of March 6, the white sugar quotation in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,400 yuan per ton, and the sugar quotation in Nanning was 5,390 yuan per ton [38] - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,493 yuan per ton, an increase of 132 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 404 yuan per ton, an increase of 25 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,498 yuan per ton, an increase of 33 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 482 yuan per ton, an increase of 23 yuan per ton from last week [44] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production Increase: The estimated output of Yunnan sugar in the 2025/26 crushing season has been raised to about 2.7 million tons. In 2025, the cumulative imported sugar was 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 950%. In December 2025, the domestic sugar import volume was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 316.67% and a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons [5][53] - Demand Side - General Sales - to - Production Ratio: In December 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 3.5904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 13.4214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [64] 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Correlated Market - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for white sugar this week is presented in the report [65] - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry [70]