碳酸锂市场周报：供需双增库存去化，锂价或将有所支撑-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with inventory being depleted. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated weakly, with a change of - 11.29%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 156,160 yuan/ton [5] - Macroeconomic Situation: The government work report set the main expected goals for 2026: economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, and an effort to achieve better results in actual work; the increase in consumer prices is about 2% [5] - Fundamentals: Overseas mines are holding prices and reluctant to sell, and smelters' inquiry sentiment has increased. However, due to large fluctuations in lithium prices, both buyers and sellers remain relatively cautious [5] - Supply: Upstream lithium salt plants have resumed production after the holiday, and the pressure on lithium carbonate prices has increased the upstream's willingness to hold prices. The volume of lithium carbonate exports from Chile has rebounded, and it is expected that the domestic import volume of lithium carbonate will also increase after the arrival of the goods, so the supply of lithium carbonate will continue to grow [5] - Demand: The resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises after the holiday and the order scheduling situation have significantly improved. In addition, the decline in lithium carbonate prices has increased the downstream's willingness to purchase and replenish inventory, and the spot market transactions are relatively active [5] - Inventory: The overall industrial inventory is in a downward trend, with obvious shipments from traders and replenishment of downstream inventory [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of March 6, 2026, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 156,160 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19,880 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 2,140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,880 yuan/ton [11] - Spot Price: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16,750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 910 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,130 yuan/ton [17] 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 2,505 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350 US dollars/ton. As of the latest data this week, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9003, with a week - on - week increase of 0.89% [21] - Lithium Mica: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 14,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,350 yuan/ton. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,175 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 788 yuan/ton [25] 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons from November, an increase of 8.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons from November, an increase of 20.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 59,470 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from December, an increase of 4.66%, and a year - on - year increase of 69.29%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5%, and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [31] - Downstream Demand - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of March 6, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 111,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 yuan/ton. As of January 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,600 tons, a decrease of 13,550 tons from December, a decrease of 5.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 50.76% [34] - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 58,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 yuan/ton. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 245,080 tons, a decrease of 24,250 tons from December, a decrease of 9%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.76%. The monthly operating rate was - 60% month - on - month and - 57% year - on - year [37] - Ternary Materials: As of January 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 59,560 tons, a decrease of 870 tons from December, a decrease of 1.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.31%. The monthly operating rate was - 50% month - on - month and - 44% year - on - year. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to decline [42] - Lithium Manganate: As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,740 tons, a decrease of 290 tons from December, a decrease of 2.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.95%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 54,000 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week [47] - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,630 tons, a decrease of 140 tons from December, a decrease of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 131.56% [50] - New Energy Vehicles: As of January 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 40.28%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.65% and a year - on - year increase of 1.32%. The monthly output was 1,041,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 39.41%; the sales volume was 945,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 44.74%. The cumulative export volume was 302,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 101.33% [53][57] 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.09, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a short straddle option to bet on increased volatility [62]