两会正式开幕，债市延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic fundamentals are in a "weak recovery" stage, which provides bottom support for the bond market. It is expected that interest rates will maintain a range - bound pattern in the future. Attention should be paid to relevant policies during the Two Sessions and the development of the Middle - East situation [101] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - This week, the yields of most treasury bond cash bonds declined. The yields of 1 - 7Y bonds decreased by about 0.65 - 3bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreased by 0 and 0.25bp respectively to 1.79% and 2.23%. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively. The main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL rose 0.02%, 0.13%, 0.15%, and 0.67% respectively [9] - The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased, while the open interests of these contracts all increased [30] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Policy and regulation: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened on March 5. The Government Work Report proposed the main expected goals for 2026, including an economic growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a target for new urban employment of over 12 million, etc. Four departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued an opinion to promote the high - quality development of science and technology insurance [7] - Domestic fundamentals: In February, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points. In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year. In January, new RMB loans were 4.71 trillion yuan, 420 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the social financing scale was 7.22 trillion yuan, 165.4 billion yuan more than the same period last year; the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 were 4.9% and 9.0% respectively [8] - Overseas situation: Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 213,000, and the ADP employment in February increased by 63,000. The Fed's Beige Book showed an optimistic economic outlook. The Middle - East conflict continued to escalate [9] - Exchange rate: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9025, with a cumulative increase of 203 basis points this week [9] - Capital situation: This week, the central bank conducted 161.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase in the open market, with 1.525 trillion yuan due; the net repurchase of outright reverse repurchase was 200 billion yuan, with a cumulative net repurchase of 1.4474 trillion yuan. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.41% [9] 3.3. Chart Analysis - Spread changes: This week, the yield spreads between 10Y and 5Y, 10Y and 1Y treasury bonds widened; the spreads between the main contracts of TF and TS, T and TF widened; the inter - period spreads of 10Y, 30Y, 5Y, and 2Y treasury bond futures narrowed [44][50][54][61] - Treasury bond futures' main position changes: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T treasury bond futures' main contract increased slightly [67] - Interest rate changes: The overnight Shibor rate rose, while the 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates fell. The weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.41%. The yields of most treasury bond cash bonds declined. The yield spreads between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds widened, while those between 30Y treasury bonds narrowed [71][77] - Central bank's open - market operations: This week, the central bank had a net repurchase of 1.4474 trillion yuan in the open market, and the weighted average interest rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.41% [79] - Bond issuance and maturity: This week, the bond issuance was 1.304583 trillion yuan, the total repayment was 0.854556 trillion yuan, and the net financing was 0.450028 trillion yuan [83] - Market sentiment: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose by 203 basis points this week, and the spread between the offshore and onshore RMB widened. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield and the VIX index rose significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond yield in China declined, and the A - share risk premium rose [87][93][98] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - Domestic fundamentals: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the official manufacturing PMI in February continued to weaken, but the service industry PMI rebounded seasonally. Policy: The Government Work Report in 2026 clarified the fiscal and monetary policy tones. The fiscal deficit rate will be maintained at around 4%, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose [101] - Overseas situation: The Middle - East conflict has lasted for nearly a week without signs of easing, which will cause significant fluctuations in the equity market. The US labor market shows signs of stabilization, but inflation and policy uncertainties still pose risks [101] - Outlook: The expansion speed of general fiscal expenditure has weakened marginally, and the supply pressure of government bonds is generally controllable. The monetary policy will mainly use structural tools, and the use of aggregate tools will be prudent. It is expected that interest rates will maintain a range - bound pattern [101]