《金融》日报-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and daily changes of price spreads for various stock index futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, along with cross - variety ratios. However, no clear investment suggestions are made other than presenting data [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: It shows the IRR, basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL, with data on their changes and historical quantiles [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold is expected to be bullish above the 20 - day moving average, and investors can hold long positions and sell out - of - the - money call options with strike prices above 1200 yuan. Silver's long - term upward logic remains valid, but short - term factors limit its upside, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended. For platinum and palladium, prices are generally supported, and for platinum, a strategy of buying on dips near the 20 - day moving average is suggested, and going long on the platinum - palladium ratio is also advisable [3]. - Container Shipping: Due to the recent military conflict between the US and Iran, the sentiment impact on the 04 contract of container shipping European routes is greater than the fundamental impact. It is expected that the main contract 2604 will open significantly higher, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the conflict and the collection of war surcharges [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Price Spreads: The current values of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures - spot spreads are 3.15, 5.97, - 13.05, and - 29.44 respectively. The historical 1 - year quantiles are 93.80%, 93.40%, 83.60%, and 25.00% respectively. There are also detailed cross - period spreads and cross - variety ratios provided [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Basis: On February 27, 2026, the basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL are - 0.0112, 1.4278, 1.5179, and 1.3159 respectively, with corresponding historical quantiles of 16.70%, 35.10%, 52.10%, and 38.80% [2]. - Cross - Period Spreads: Different contracts have various cross - period spread values, such as the "current quarter - next quarter" spread of TS being 0.0000, with a change of - 0.0160 and a historical quantile of 25.60% [2]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: For example, the "TS - TF" spread is - 0.0010 on February 27, 2026, with a historical quantile of 8.30% [2]. Precious Metals - Futures Prices: On February 27, 2026, the domestic futures closing prices of AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 are 1147.90 yuan/gram, 23019 yuan/kilogram, 623.75 yuan/gram, and 464.85 yuan/gram respectively, showing different degrees of increase compared to the previous day [3]. - Spot Prices: London gold, London silver, and other spot prices also changed on the same day. For example, London gold rose from 5181.25 to 5278.26 US dollars/ounce, with a growth rate of 1.87% [3]. - Basis and Ratios: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 5.42, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10%. There are also various price ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, which decreased by 4.13% to 56.11 [3]. - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased to 3.97% with a decline of 1.2%, and the US dollar index decreased to 97.64 with a decline of 0.14% [3]. - Inventory and Positions: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver decreased by - 0.01% and - 11.48% respectively, while the positions of some ETFs changed [3]. Container Shipping - Shipping Rates: The freight rates of some shipping companies such as MAERSK, CMA, and MSC remained stable, while ONE's freight rate decreased by 9.88%. The settlement price index of SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route) decreased, while the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) increased [5]. - Futures Prices and Basis: The prices of EC2604 (main contract) decreased by 0.94%, while the basis (main contract) increased by 3.44% [5]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased by 8.68%, and some overseas economic indicators such as the US manufacturing PMI index increased by 9.81% [5].