供需回升库存积累，铜价或将震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be in a stage of rising supply and demand and accumulating inventory, with an overall positive industry outlook It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change rate of - 2.76%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 101,050 yuan/ton [6] - International Situation: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The Fed's Beige Book shows an optimistic economic outlook, with most regions expecting slight to moderate economic growth in the coming months [6] - Domestic Situation: Affected by the Spring Festival, China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, down 0.3 ppts; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 ppts; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 ppts [6] - Fundamentals: The copper concentrate TC spot index is weakening, and the supply of copper ore is tight. Smelters are resuming production, and domestic refined copper supply may increase. Downstream demand is expected to pick up with the "Golden March and Silver April" season, and the price correction may boost downstream restocking. Due to the difference in the resumption rhythm of supply and demand, copper industry inventory is still accumulating [6] 2. Spot - Futures Market - Futures Contracts: As of March 6, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1855 yuan/ton. The main contract was quoted at 101,050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2870 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 195,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 8117 lots [13] - Spot Prices: As of March 6, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,965 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 760 yuan/ton [16] - Cross - Period Quotes: As of March 6, 2026, the cross - period quote of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 510 yuan/ton [16] - Copper Premium and Positions: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 43 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 75,885 lots, a decrease of 6184 lots from the previous week [25] 3. Option Market - Implied Volatility: As of March 6, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility [30] - Put - Call Ratio: As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.7361, compared with 0.1208 last week [30] 4. Upstream Situation - Quotes and Processing Fees: The copper concentrate in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was quoted at 91,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 950 yuan/ton. The southern copper scrap processing fee was quoted at 2300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [32] - Imports and Price Spreads: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, an increase of 178,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.05%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.24%. The price spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 4668.18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1050 yuan/ton [38] - Production and Inventory: As of November 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.923 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from October, a decline of 0.57%. The global copper concentrate capacity utilization rate was 78.8%, an increase of 1.9% from October. The domestic seven - port copper concentrate inventory was 5.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 460,000 tons [43] 5. Industry Situation - Refined Copper Production: As of December 2025, the domestic monthly output of refined copper was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.28%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 6.76%. The global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.431 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 2.96%. The refined copper capacity utilization rate was 80.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from November [45] - Refined Copper Imports: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a decrease of 6677.56 tons from November, a decline of 2.19%, and a year - on - year decline of 27%. The import profit and loss amount was 1246.98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3059.13 yuan/ton [53][54] - Social Inventory: The LME total inventory increased by 28,500 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory decreased by 1879 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 24,894 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 584,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 tons [57] 6. Downstream and Application - Copper Products: As of December 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3100 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 2.33%, and a year - on - year decline of 21.43% [64] - Power and Appliance Applications: As of December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 5.11% and - 4.65%. The year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 4.4%, - 9.6%, 5.7%, 7%, and - 1.2% [68] - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of December 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion amount was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 484.279481 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [75] 7. Overall Situation - Global Supply - Demand: According to ICSG statistics, as of December 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 173,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 98,000 tons [80][81]